FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge preview
In the Challenge League fixture between FC Winterthur and Étoile Carouge, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Winterthur at 66%, while Étoile Carouge stands at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% chance according to our model. FC Winterthur's expected goals are 2.08, significantly higher than Étoile Carouge's 0.81.
However, the recent form indicates some unpredictability. FC Winterthur has won 4 of their last 6 matches, while Étoile Carouge has struggled, with 5 matches resulting in 1 win and 5 losses. Both teams to score has a 50% chance, and Over 2.5 goals is at 55%. These factors could influence the match outcome.
FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge: model vs market
| Source | FC Winterthur | Draw | Étoile Carouge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Published | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Winterthur below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Winterthur, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Winterthur | 1.50 | 1.50 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.00 |
| Étoile Carouge | 4.85 | 5.15 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Winterthur and Étoile Carouge expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (FC Winterthur / Étoile Carouge)
- 1.23 / 0.74
- Defence rating (FC Winterthur / Étoile Carouge)
- 0.69 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Winterthur goals. Columns: Étoile Carouge goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Winterthur | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Étoile Carouge | 16% | 6.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Winterthur or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Étoile Carouge) | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Winterthur win by 2+ | 47% | 2.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Winterthur and Étoile Carouge recent form
FC Winterthur
4W 0D 2L
Étoile Carouge
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Winterthur at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Étoile Carouge away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Winterthur at home only, Étoile Carouge away only.
FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FC Winterthur 1 · draws 0 · Étoile Carouge 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Étoile Carouge | 0-1 | FC Winterthur | Challenge League |
| 2021-09-18 | Étoile Carouge | 3-1 | FC Winterthur | Schweizer Cup |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- SC Kriens v Rapperswil — match page 2026-11-06
- Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC Winterthur, previous: FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur prediction
- Étoile Carouge, previous: Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens: odds and pick