FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais preview
In the Challenge League fixture between FC Winterthur and Stade Nyonnais, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Winterthur at 77%, while Stade Nyonnais stands at just 8%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-0, which reflects FC Winterthur's expected goals of 2.87 compared to Stade Nyonnais's 0.85.
However, the recent form indicates that FC Winterthur has had mixed results with L-W-W-W-D-D, while Stade Nyonnais has struggled with L-W-L-L-L-D. This inconsistency could lead to a different outcome than anticipated, especially considering that both teams to score is at 55%. If Stade Nyonnais can improve their form, they might challenge the expected result.
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais: model vs market
| Source | FC Winterthur | Draw | Stade Nyonnais |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Market | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Published | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.22, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Winterthur, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Winterthur | 1.20 | 1.18 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 6.40 | 6.50 | +0.10 |
| Stade Nyonnais | 10.75 | 11.00 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Winterthur and Stade Nyonnais expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (FC Winterthur / Stade Nyonnais)
- 1.02 / 0.69
- Defence rating (FC Winterthur / Stade Nyonnais)
- 0.86 / 1.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Winterthur goals. Columns: Stade Nyonnais goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Winterthur | 77% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.80 | |
| Stade Nyonnais | 8% | 11.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Winterthur or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Stade Nyonnais) | 23% | 4.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Winterthur win by 2+ | 54% | 1.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Winterthur and Stade Nyonnais recent form
FC Winterthur
3W 1D 2L
Stade Nyonnais
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Winterthur at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Stade Nyonnais away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 3.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Winterthur at home only, Stade Nyonnais away only.
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: FC Winterthur 0 · draws 1 · Stade Nyonnais 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Stade Nyonnais | 2-2 | FC Winterthur | Challenge League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
- FC Winterthur, previous: FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern: odds and pick
- Stade Nyonnais, previous: Stade Nyonnais vs FC Basel 1893: odds and pick