Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC preview
In the Challenge League fixture between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy has a 63% chance to win, while Neuchatel Xamax FC sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected to score 2.55 goals compared to Neuchatel's 0.60.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is in strong recent form, winning 6 of their last 6 matches, while Neuchatel Xamax FC has lost 4 of their last 6. However, Neuchatel Xamax FC did manage to win 1 of their last 5 head-to-head encounters, which could influence the outcome. Additionally, while our model suggests a 61% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, unexpected performances could alter these predictions.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC: model vs market
| Source | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Draw | Neuchatel Xamax FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 16% | 7% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Published | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stade Lausanne-Ouchy below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1.57 | 1.58 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.12 | -0.03 |
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 4.60 | 4.59 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy / Neuchatel Xamax FC)
- 1.47 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy / Neuchatel Xamax FC)
- 0.44 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals. Columns: Neuchatel Xamax FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.88 | |
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 17% | 6.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC) | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win by 2+ | 57% | 1.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC recent form
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
5W 1D 0L
Neuchatel Xamax FC
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Neuchatel Xamax FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home only, Neuchatel Xamax FC away only.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 6 · draws 1 · Neuchatel Xamax FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 1-2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2026-05-15 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 2-1 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2026-02-08 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 3-0 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2025-12-10 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 3-0 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2025-10-03 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 0-2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2025-04-18 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 0-0 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2025-01-24 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 1-2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2024-11-29 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1-2 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2024-07-19 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 3-2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2023-05-05 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 2-0 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- FC WIL 1900 vs Rapperswil — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais 2026-10-23
- FC Aarau v Étoile Carouge — match page 2026-10-24
- Yverdon Sport vs SC Kriens — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, previous: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Étoile Carouge analysis
- Neuchatel Xamax FC, previous: Langenthal vs Neuchatel Xamax FC: odds and pick