FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge preview
In the Challenge League fixture, FC Aarau has a 60% probability to win against Étoile Carouge, who has only a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a probability of 11%. FC Aarau's expected goals stand at 1.95, while Étoile Carouge's is just 0.94, indicating a significant attacking advantage for the home side.
However, recent form shows FC Aarau has two losses in their last three matches, while Étoile Carouge has lost five of their last six games. Both teams to score has a probability of 53%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 55%. If FC Aarau's defense falters or if Étoile Carouge finds an unexpected form, these predictions could be challenged.
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge: model vs market
| Source | FC Aarau | Draw | Étoile Carouge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Published | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Aarau below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Aarau, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Aarau | 1.67 | 1.70 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.90 | -0.10 |
| Étoile Carouge | 4.03 | 4.00 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Aarau and Étoile Carouge expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (FC Aarau / Étoile Carouge)
- 1.06 / 0.59
- Defence rating (FC Aarau / Étoile Carouge)
- 1.05 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Aarau goals. Columns: Étoile Carouge goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Aarau | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Étoile Carouge | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Aarau or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Étoile Carouge) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Aarau win by 2+ | 39% | 2.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Aarau and Étoile Carouge recent form
FC Aarau
2W 2D 2L
Étoile Carouge
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Aarau at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Étoile Carouge away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Aarau at home only, Étoile Carouge away only.
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Aarau 5 · draws 1 · Étoile Carouge 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Étoile Carouge | 3-0 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2026-04-07 | FC Aarau | 1-3 | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| 2026-03-06 | Étoile Carouge | 0-3 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2025-12-12 | FC Aarau | 2-1 | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| 2025-09-26 | Étoile Carouge | 1-3 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2025-05-16 | Étoile Carouge | 1-3 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2025-03-28 | FC Aarau | 2-2 | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| 2024-12-05 | FC Aarau | 0-1 | Étoile Carouge | Schweizer Cup |
| 2024-11-01 | Étoile Carouge | 2-1 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2024-08-24 | FC Aarau | 1-0 | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- FC WIL 1900 vs Rapperswil — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Neuchatel Xamax FC — match page 2026-10-23
- FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais 2026-10-23
- Yverdon Sport vs SC Kriens — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- FC Aarau, previous: FC Aarau v FC Zurich analysis
- Étoile Carouge, previous: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Étoile Carouge analysis