Stade Nyonnais vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Basel 1893 preview

In the Schweizer Cup fixture, Stade Nyonnais faces FC Basel 1893 with a 93% probability for Basel to win, compared to just 2% for Nyonnais. The most likely scoreline is 0-3, which aligns with Basel's expected goals of 3.93 against Nyonnais's 0.52.

While Over 2.5 goals stands at 82%, meaning three or more goals are expected, both teams to score is only at 40%. This suggests that while Basel is likely to dominate the match, Stade Nyonnais may struggle to find the net. Recent form also indicates challenges for Nyonnais, who have lost their last three matches, while Basel has shown some resilience with a win in their last game.

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Basel 1893: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Stade Nyonnais	Draw	FC Basel 1893
Model	2%	7%	91%
Market	—	—	—
Published	2%	7%	91%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.67 vs 0.56.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Stade Nyonnais and FC Basel 1893 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.56Stade Nyonnais

3.67FC Basel 1893

Total expected goals: 4.24
Attack rating (Stade Nyonnais / FC Basel 1893): 0.62 / 0.99
Defence rating (Stade Nyonnais / FC Basel 1893): 1.17 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Basel 1893 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 5.0% 9.8% 11.9% 28.4% 1 0.5% 3.3% 5.5% 6.7% 16.0% 2 0.2% 0.8% 1.6% 1.9% 4.5% 3 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 4+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Stade Nyonnais goals. Columns: FC Basel 1893 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Basel 1893 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 79%

Over 3.5 61%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stade Nyonnais vs FC Basel 1893

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Stade Nyonnais	2%	44.77
	Draw	7%	14.26
	FC Basel 1893	91%	1.10
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	79%	1.26
	Under 2.5	21%	4.86
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.36
	No	58%	1.73
Double chance	1X (Stade Nyonnais or draw)	9%	10.81
	12 (either side)	93%	1.08
	X2 (draw or FC Basel 1893)	98%	1.02
Handicap -1	FC Basel 1893 win by 2+	78%	1.28
	Push (exactly one goal)	13%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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