Rapperswil vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Rapperswil vs FC ST. Gallen preview

In the Schweizer Cup match between Rapperswil and FC ST. Gallen, the 1X2 probabilities show FC ST. Gallen at 70%, while Rapperswil is at 11%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with FC ST. Gallen's expected goals of 2.42 compared to Rapperswil's 0.89.

While the model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 55%, these outcomes could be affected by Rapperswil's recent form, which includes 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. FC ST. Gallen's form is also inconsistent, with 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 games.

Rapperswil vs FC ST. Gallen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Rapperswil	Draw	FC ST. Gallen
Model	8%	16%	76%
Market	—	—	—
Published	8%	16%	76%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 0.81.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Rapperswil and FC ST. Gallen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.81Rapperswil

2.63FC ST. Gallen

Total expected goals: 3.44
Attack rating (Rapperswil / FC ST. Gallen): 0.92 / 0.92
Defence rating (Rapperswil / FC ST. Gallen): 0.90 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rapperswil vs FC ST. Gallen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 7.8% 11.1% 9.7% 12.1% 1 1.9% 7.5% 9.0% 7.9% 9.7% 2 1.0% 2.8% 3.6% 3.2% 3.9% 3 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%

Rows: Rapperswil goals. Columns: FC ST. Gallen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rapperswil vs FC ST. Gallen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 67%

Over 3.5 45%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rapperswil vs FC ST. Gallen

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Rapperswil	8%	11.87
	Draw	16%	6.24
	FC ST. Gallen	76%	1.32
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67%	1.50
	Under 2.5	33%	3.00
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.92
	No	48%	2.09
Double chance	1X (Rapperswil or draw)	24%	4.09
	12 (either side)	84%	1.19
	X2 (draw or FC ST. Gallen)	92%	1.09
Handicap -1	FC ST. Gallen win by 2+	55%	1.82
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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