Boluspor vs Vanspor FK preview
In the 1. Lig fixture between Boluspor and Vanspor FK, the 1X2 probabilities show Boluspor at 31%, a draw at 28%, and Vanspor FK at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs at a 9% chance. Both teams have had mixed recent form, with Boluspor losing their last 5 matches and Vanspor FK winning 1 of their last 6.
The expected goals suggest Boluspor will score 1.27 and Vanspor FK 1.47. The model indicates a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. If Boluspor can improve their performance, they might challenge Vanspor FK more effectively, but their recent struggles could impact their ability to secure a positive result.
Boluspor vs Vanspor FK: model vs market
| Source | Boluspor | Draw | Vanspor FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Boluspor and Vanspor FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Boluspor / Vanspor FK)
- 0.62 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Boluspor / Vanspor FK)
- 1.40 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Boluspor vs Vanspor FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Boluspor goals. Columns: Vanspor FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Boluspor vs Vanspor FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Boluspor vs Vanspor FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boluspor | 31% | 3.19 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Vanspor FK | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Boluspor or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Vanspor FK) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vanspor FK win by 2+ | 20% | 4.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Boluspor and Vanspor FK recent form
Boluspor
0W 1D 5L
Vanspor FK
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Boluspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vanspor FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Boluspor at home only, Vanspor FK away only.
Boluspor vs Vanspor FK head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Boluspor 1 · draws 0 · Vanspor FK 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | Vanspor FK | 0-1 | Boluspor | 1. Lig |
| 2025-08-10 | Boluspor | 2-3 | Vanspor FK | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor 2026-10-24
- Bandırmaspor v Iğdır FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor — match page 2026-10-24
- Sarıyer v Fatih Karagümrük — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Boluspor, previous: Iğdır FK vs Boluspor prediction
- Vanspor FK, previous: Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor analysis