Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük preview
In the match between Sarıyer and Fatih Karagümrük, the 1X2 probabilities show Sarıyer at 39%, while both teams share 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Sarıyer has an expected goals figure of 1.24, compared to Fatih Karagümrük's 1.08, indicating a slight edge for Sarıyer in offensive potential.
However, the chance for Over 2.5 goals is at 41%, and both teams to score stands at 48%. This suggests that while Sarıyer might have the upper hand, the match could still see a different outcome if Fatih Karagümrük finds their scoring form. The recent form shows Sarıyer with mixed results and Fatih Karagümrük struggling, which could impact the match dynamics.
Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük: model vs market
| Source | Sarıyer | Draw | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 31% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 31% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sarıyer and Fatih Karagümrük expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.33
- Attack rating (Sarıyer / Fatih Karagümrük)
- 0.92 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Sarıyer / Fatih Karagümrük)
- 0.98 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sarıyer goals. Columns: Fatih Karagümrük goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarıyer | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sarıyer or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Fatih Karagümrük) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sarıyer win by 2+ | 18% | 5.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sarıyer and Fatih Karagümrük recent form
Sarıyer
1W 3D 2L
Fatih Karagümrük
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sarıyer at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Fatih Karagümrük away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sarıyer at home only, Fatih Karagümrük away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Boluspor vs Vanspor FK — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor 2026-10-24
- Bandırmaspor v Iğdır FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Sarıyer, previous: Sivasspor vs Sarıyer prediction
- Fatih Karagümrük, previous: Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü prediction