Updated

1. Lig · Matchday 11

Sivasspor vs Sarıyer

· Yeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivas· Referee Caliskan, Emre Kaan

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Sivasspor to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SivassporDrawSarıyer

Sivasspor vs Sarıyer: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSivassporDrawSarıyer
Model49%27%24%
Market39%28%32%
Published42%28%30%
Edge+10%-2%-8%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.09.
  • The market prices Sivasspor below the model: +9.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sivasspor vs Sarıyer odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sivasspor, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-14.

Opened 2.34Now 2.30 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sivasspor2.342.30-0.04
Draw3.143.19+0.05
Sarıyer2.852.81-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sivasspor and Sarıyer expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.64Sivasspor
1.09Sarıyer
Total expected goals
2.73
Attack rating (Sivasspor / Sarıyer)
1.03 / 0.92
Defence rating (Sivasspor / Sarıyer)
0.95 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sivasspor vs Sarıyer score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 5.9% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 1 9.5% 12.8% 6.3% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.8% 9.6% 5.2% 1.9% 0.7% 3 4.8% 5.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 2.8% 3.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Sivasspor goals. Columns: Sarıyer goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sivasspor vs Sarıyer goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sivasspor vs Sarıyer

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sivasspor42%2.39
Draw28%3.57
Sarıyer30%3.31
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.95
Under 2.549%2.06
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.83
No45%2.21
Double chance1X (Sivasspor or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Sarıyer)58%1.72
Handicap -1Sivasspor win by 2+27%3.75
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sivasspor and Sarıyer recent form

Sivasspor 2W 4D 0L
Sarıyer 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sivasspor at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-4-0
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.80
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Sarıyer away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Sivasspor at home only, Sarıyer away only.

Expected lineups

Sivasspor lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 Arda Erdusun
  2. 77 Y. Kefkir
  3. 34 T. Tuzlacik
  4. 4 M. Çelik
  5. 26 M. Yıldırım
  6. 20 M. Mohammed
  7. 66 Oguzhan Aksoy
  8. 27 V. Ethemi
  9. 30 E. Ceesay
  10. 28 S. Kavrazlı
  11. 9 R. Manaj

Bench: G. Bakırbaş, C. Charisis, B. Kapacak, C. Duodu, E. Gökay, C. Çelik, Eymen Yurdcu, M. Albayrak, Yilmaz Cin

Sarıyer lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 I. Šehić
  2. 5 E. Korkmazoğlu
  3. 23 Ü. Ergün
  4. 88 C. Osmanpaşa
  5. 24 K. Arslan
  6. 17 D. Davas
  7. 28 H. Yeşilyurt
  8. 10 E. Karaca
  9. 53 A. Biyogo Poko
  10. 7 B. Alici
  11. 90 E. Eze

Bench: F. Akyüz, J. Attamah, E. Dikmen, B. Kör, E. Karadağ, T. Ergül, M. Yücel, F. Gedik, M. Thiam

Sivasspor vs Sarıyer head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Sivasspor 1 · draws 0 · Sarıyer 1.

SivassporDrawsSarıyer
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-07Sarıyer1-0Sivasspor1. Lig
2025-09-13Sivasspor1-0Sarıyer1. Lig

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match