Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü preview
In the match between Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü, the 1X2 probabilities show Fatih Karagümrük at 37%, a draw at 28%, and Keçiörengücü at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals figure of 1.03 for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.18 for Keçiörengücü.
For those considering Over 2.5 goals, the probability is 38%, while both teams to score stands at 46%. The recent form indicates Fatih Karagümrük has drawn three times in their last six matches, while Keçiörengücü has won four of their last six. This could affect the outcome, as form can change quickly in football.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü: model vs market
| Source | Fatih Karagümrük | Draw | Keçiörengücü |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 33% | 38% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Published | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Edge | -11% | +5% | +6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fatih Karagümrük, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | 2.34 | 2.25 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.33 | 3.32 | -0.02 |
| Keçiörengücü | 2.63 | 2.78 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.09
- Attack rating (Fatih Karagümrük / Keçiörengücü)
- 0.89 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Fatih Karagümrük / Keçiörengücü)
- 0.84 / 0.66
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fatih Karagümrük goals. Columns: Keçiörengücü goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fatih Karagümrük | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Keçiörengücü | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fatih Karagümrük or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Keçiörengücü) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fatih Karagümrük win by 2+ | 11% | 9.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü recent form
Fatih Karagümrük
1W 3D 2L
Keçiörengücü
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fatih Karagümrük at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Keçiörengücü away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük at home only, Keçiörengücü away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Bodrum FK v Bandırmaspor — match page 2026-10-17
- Iğdır FK vs Boluspor 2026-10-18
- Kayserispor vs Batman Petrolspor 2026-10-18
- Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor — match page 2026-10-18
- İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor 2026-10-18
- Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor 2026-10-19
- Bursaspor vs Pendikspor — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Fatih Karagümrük, previous: Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük prediction
- Fatih Karagümrük, next: Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük: odds and pick
- Keçiörengücü, previous: Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK prediction