Bursaspor vs Pendikspor preview
In the upcoming match between Bursaspor and Pendikspor, the 1X2 probabilities suggest Bursaspor has a strong chance to win at 68%, while Pendikspor sits at 12%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring with an 11% probability. Bursaspor's expected goals stand at 2.25, indicating a solid attacking performance, while Pendikspor's expected goals are just 0.86.
Bursaspor's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Pendikspor has struggled with only 1 win in the same period. The model indicates a 60% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score. However, unexpected performances from Pendikspor could alter the outcome significantly.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor: model vs market
| Source | Bursaspor | Draw | Pendikspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Published | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | +8% | -3% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bursaspor below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bursaspor, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.21 | 4.33 | +0.11 |
| Pendikspor | 6.60 | 6.25 | -0.34 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bursaspor and Pendikspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Bursaspor / Pendikspor)
- 1.29 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Bursaspor / Pendikspor)
- 0.78 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bursaspor goals. Columns: Pendikspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bursaspor vs Pendikspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bursaspor | 67% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Pendikspor | 13% | 7.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bursaspor or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Pendikspor) | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bursaspor win by 2+ | 51% | 1.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bursaspor and Pendikspor recent form
Bursaspor
4W 1D 1L
Pendikspor
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bursaspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Pendikspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bursaspor at home only, Pendikspor away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Bodrum FK v Bandırmaspor — match page 2026-10-17
- Iğdır FK vs Boluspor 2026-10-18
- Kayserispor vs Batman Petrolspor 2026-10-18
- Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor — match page 2026-10-18
- İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor 2026-10-18
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor 2026-10-19
- Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Bursaspor, previous: Muğlaspor v Bursaspor analysis
- Pendikspor, previous: Pendikspor v Vanspor FK analysis