Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK: model vs market
| Source | Pendikspor | Draw | Vanspor FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 57% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Pendikspor and Vanspor FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Pendikspor / Vanspor FK)
- 0.86 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Pendikspor / Vanspor FK)
- 0.97 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pendikspor goals. Columns: Vanspor FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pendikspor | 57% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Vanspor FK | 19% | 5.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pendikspor or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Vanspor FK) | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pendikspor win by 2+ | 33% | 3.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pendikspor and Vanspor FK recent form
Pendikspor
2W 3D 1L
Vanspor FK
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pendikspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Vanspor FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pendikspor at home only, Vanspor FK away only.
Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Pendikspor 0 · draws 2 · Vanspor FK 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Pendikspor | 1-1 | Vanspor FK | 1. Lig |
| 2025-10-18 | Vanspor FK | 1-1 | Pendikspor | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Bandırmaspor v Sivasspor — match page 2026-10-13
- Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK — team news & stats 2026-10-13