Updated

1. Lig · Matchday 10

Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK

· Pendik Stadium, Istanbul· Referee Copur Muhammet Alperen

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Pendikspor to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PendiksporDrawVanspor FK

Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePendiksporDrawVanspor FK
Model52%26%22%
Market53%26%21%
Published53%26%21%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Pendikspor, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.77Now 1.71 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Pendikspor1.771.71-0.05
Draw3.673.58-0.09
Vanspor FK4.164.29+0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Pendikspor and Vanspor FK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Pendikspor
1.08Vanspor FK
Total expected goals
2.84
Attack rating (Pendikspor / Vanspor FK)
0.81 / 0.77
Defence rating (Pendikspor / Vanspor FK)
1.15 / 1.34

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 5.2% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 1 9.1% 12.2% 6.0% 2.2% 0.7% 2 9.0% 9.8% 5.3% 1.9% 0.7% 3 5.3% 5.7% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 3.5% 3.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Pendikspor goals. Columns: Vanspor FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Pendikspor53%1.89
Draw26%3.91
Vanspor FK21%4.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.85
Under 2.546%2.18
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.27
Double chance1X (Pendikspor or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Vanspor FK)47%2.13
Handicap -1Pendikspor win by 2+30%3.38
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Pendikspor and Vanspor FK recent form

Pendikspor 1W 3D 2L
Vanspor FK 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Pendikspor at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Vanspor FK away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Pendikspor at home only, Vanspor FK away only.

Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Pendikspor 0 · draws 2 · Vanspor FK 2.

PendiksporDrawsVanspor FK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-06Pendikspor1-1Vanspor FK1. Lig
2025-10-18Vanspor FK1-1Pendikspor1. Lig
2021-03-18Vanspor FK2-0Pendikspor2. Lig
2020-11-14Pendikspor3-5Vanspor FK2. Lig

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match