Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor preview
In the upcoming match between Antalyaspor and Kayserispor, the 1X2 probabilities show Kayserispor at 42%, while Antalyaspor sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, but Kayserispor has a stronger record with 4 wins in their last 6 matches compared to Antalyaspor's 3 wins.
The model suggests a 54% chance for both teams to score and a 48% probability for Over 2.5 goals. Antalyaspor's expected goals are 1.17, while Kayserispor's are higher at 1.42. However, if Antalyaspor can improve their performance at home, they might challenge Kayserispor's current form.
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor: model vs market
| Source | Antalyaspor | Draw | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 29% | 42% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 39% |
| Published | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kayserispor below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kayserispor, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | 2.82 | 2.70 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.30 | -0.25 |
| Kayserispor | 2.25 | 2.30 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Antalyaspor and Kayserispor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (Antalyaspor / Kayserispor)
- 1.07 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Antalyaspor / Kayserispor)
- 1.03 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Antalyaspor goals. Columns: Kayserispor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antalyaspor | 32% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Kayserispor | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Antalyaspor or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Kayserispor) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kayserispor win by 2+ | 21% | 4.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Antalyaspor and Kayserispor recent form
Antalyaspor
3W 0D 3L
Kayserispor
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Antalyaspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kayserispor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Antalyaspor at home only, Kayserispor away only.
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Antalyaspor 0 · draws 1 · Kayserispor 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Kayserispor | 1-0 | Antalyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-09-20 | Antalyaspor | 1-1 | Kayserispor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Pendikspor v Vanspor FK — match page 2026-10-13
- Batman Petrolspor v İstanbulspor — match page 2026-10-14
- Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor 2026-10-14
- Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük 2026-10-15
- Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-10-15
- Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor — team news & stats 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Antalyaspor, previous: Boluspor v Antalyaspor analysis
- Kayserispor, previous: Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.: odds and pick