Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Kayserispor	Draw	Manisa F.K.
Model	57%	26%	17%
Market	65%	20%	15%
Published	63%	22%	15%
Edge	-8%	+6%	+2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.82.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.

Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Kayserispor, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.40Now 1.38 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Kayserispor	1.40	1.38	-0.02
Draw	4.55	4.45	-0.10
Manisa F.K.	6.35	6.10	-0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kayserispor and Manisa F.K. expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69Kayserispor

0.82Manisa F.K.

Total expected goals: 2.51
Attack rating (Kayserispor / Manisa F.K.): 1.12 / 1.01
Defence rating (Kayserispor / Manisa F.K.): 0.67 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 5.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 1 12.6% 12.4% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.6% 9.5% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 6.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 4.1% 3.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Kayserispor goals. Columns: Manisa F.K. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 46%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Kayserispor	63%	1.59
	Draw	22%	4.61
	Manisa F.K.	15%	6.56
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46%	2.18
	Under 2.5	54%	1.85
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.14
	No	53%	1.88
Double chance	1X (Kayserispor or draw)	85%	1.18
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or Manisa F.K.)	37%	2.71
Handicap -1	Kayserispor win by 2+	32%	3.09
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Kayserispor and Manisa F.K. recent form

Kayserispor 4W 1D 1L

Manisa F.K. 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kayserispor at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-1
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 2.33
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 2 of 3

They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Manisa F.K. away

Record (W-D-L): 1-2-1
Win rate: 25%
Goals for / match: 1.75
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kayserispor at home only, Manisa F.K. away only.

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Prediction snapshot Kayserispor to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Kayserispor