İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor: model vs market
| Source | İstanbulspor | Draw | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 28% | 21% |
| Market | 27% | 27% | 47% |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | +25% | +1% | -26% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Esenler Erokspor, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| İstanbulspor | 3.32 | 3.40 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.40 | -0.18 |
| Esenler Erokspor | 1.96 | 1.93 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
İstanbulspor and Esenler Erokspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (İstanbulspor / Esenler Erokspor)
- 1.03 / 0.59
- Defence rating (İstanbulspor / Esenler Erokspor)
- 1.28 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: İstanbulspor goals. Columns: Esenler Erokspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | İstanbulspor | 33% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Esenler Erokspor | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (İstanbulspor or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Esenler Erokspor) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Esenler Erokspor win by 2+ | 7% | 13.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 | First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 | 100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
İstanbulspor and Esenler Erokspor recent form
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
İstanbulspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Esenler Erokspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: İstanbulspor at home only, Esenler Erokspor away only.
İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: İstanbulspor 0 · draws 0 · Esenler Erokspor 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-17 | İstanbulspor | 1-4 | Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig |
| 2025-09-24 | Esenler Erokspor | 5-0 | İstanbulspor | 1. Lig |
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