Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer preview
Ümraniyespor faces Sarıyer in the 1. Lig with a 1X2 probability of 35% for each team to win and 30% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has an 11% chance of occurring. However, the match could deviate from this prediction if both teams manage to find the net, as both teams to score has a 41% probability.
Expected goals suggest a close contest, with Ümraniyespor at 0.93 and Sarıyer at 1.08. Recent form shows Ümraniyespor with one win in their last six matches, while Sarıyer has won three of their last six. This disparity in form could influence the outcome, despite Ümraniyespor's better head-to-head record of three wins in the last four encounters.
Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer: model vs market
| Source | Ümraniyespor | Draw | Sarıyer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 33% | 37% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Published | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Edge | -8% | +4% | +3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ümraniyespor, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ümraniyespor | 2.35 | 2.42 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.27 | 3.12 | -0.15 |
| Sarıyer | 2.77 | 2.65 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ümraniyespor and Sarıyer expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.01
- Attack rating (Ümraniyespor / Sarıyer)
- 0.74 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Ümraniyespor / Sarıyer)
- 0.91 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ümraniyespor goals. Columns: Sarıyer goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ümraniyespor | 35% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Sarıyer | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.07 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ümraniyespor or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Sarıyer) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ümraniyespor win by 2+ | 11% | 9.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ümraniyespor and Sarıyer recent form
Ümraniyespor
1W 2D 3L
Sarıyer
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ümraniyespor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarıyer away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Ümraniyespor at home only, Sarıyer away only.
Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Ümraniyespor 3 · draws 0 · Sarıyer 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Sarıyer | 1-2 | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| 2025-10-17 | Ümraniyespor | 1-3 | Sarıyer | 1. Lig |
| 2016-03-11 | Ümraniyespor | 1-0 | Sarıyer | 2. Lig |
| 2015-10-30 | Sarıyer | 0-2 | Ümraniyespor | 2. Lig |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Sivasspor vs Pendikspor — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Bodrum FK v Keçiörengücü — match page 2026-10-09
- Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor 2026-10-09
- Boluspor v Antalyaspor — match page 2026-10-10
- Iğdır FK v Batman Petrolspor — match page 2026-10-10
- Kayserispor v Manisa F.K. — match page 2026-10-10
- İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-10-10
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor — team news & stats 2026-10-11