Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor preview
Vanspor FK hosts Bandırmaspor with a 46% probability for an away win. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Bandırmaspor's expected goals of 1.48 compared to Vanspor FK's 0.72. This suggests a struggle for the home side to find the net.
Both teams to score has a 41% chance, indicating a moderate likelihood of goals from both sides. However, Vanspor FK's recent form shows only one win in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome as the probabilities blend with market odds.
Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor: model vs market
| Source | Vanspor FK | Draw | Bandırmaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 29% | 54% |
| Market | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Published | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Edge | -12% | +1% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.72.
- The market prices Bandırmaspor below the model: +10.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bandırmaspor, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanspor FK | 3.18 | 3.20 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.25 | -0.10 |
| Bandırmaspor | 2.12 | 2.10 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vanspor FK and Bandırmaspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (Vanspor FK / Bandırmaspor)
- 0.82 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Vanspor FK / Bandırmaspor)
- 1.31 / 0.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vanspor FK goals. Columns: Bandırmaspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vanspor FK | 26% | 3.91 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Bandırmaspor | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.46 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vanspor FK or draw) | 54% | 1.86 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Bandırmaspor) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bandırmaspor win by 2+ | 29% | 3.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vanspor FK and Bandırmaspor recent form
Vanspor FK
1W 3D 2L
Bandırmaspor
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vanspor FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bandırmaspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vanspor FK at home only, Bandırmaspor away only.
Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Vanspor FK 0 · draws 2 · Bandırmaspor 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Bandırmaspor | 2-0 | Vanspor FK | 1. Lig |
| 2025-08-29 | Vanspor FK | 1-2 | Bandırmaspor | 1. Lig |
| 2020-01-11 | Bandırmaspor | 1-0 | Vanspor FK | 2. Lig |
| 2019-09-01 | Vanspor FK | 2-2 | Bandırmaspor | 2. Lig |
| 2018-10-31 | Bandırmaspor | 0-0 | Vanspor FK | Türkiye Kupası |
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