Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Bursaspor	Draw	Mardin 1969
Model	51%	30%	20%
Market	54%	25%	21%
Published	53%	26%	21%
Edge	-3%	+4%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.80.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.

Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bursaspor, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.70Now 1.68 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Bursaspor	1.70	1.68	-0.02
Draw	3.62	3.55	-0.08
Mardin 1969	4.43	4.33	-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bursaspor and Mardin 1969 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Bursaspor

0.80Mardin 1969

Total expected goals: 2.23
Attack rating (Bursaspor / Mardin 1969): 1.27 / 0.82
Defence rating (Bursaspor / Mardin 1969): 0.80 / 0.69

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.0% 7.4% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 1 14.2% 13.5% 4.9% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.0% 8.8% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3 5.3% 4.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 2.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Bursaspor goals. Columns: Mardin 1969 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 39%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Bursaspor	53%	1.89
	Draw	26%	3.78
	Mardin 1969	21%	4.86
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	39%	2.60
	Under 2.5	61%	1.63
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.32
	No	57%	1.76
Double chance	1X (Bursaspor or draw)	79%	1.26
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Mardin 1969)	47%	2.13
Handicap -1	Bursaspor win by 2+	26%	3.85
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Bursaspor and Mardin 1969 recent form

Bursaspor 4W 1D 1L

Mardin 1969 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bursaspor at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-0
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 2.33
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 2 of 3

They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Mardin 1969 away

Record (W-D-L): 1-2-1
Win rate: 25%
Goals for / match: 1.25
Goals against / match: 0.75
Clean sheets: 2 of 4

They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bursaspor at home only, Mardin 1969 away only.

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Prediction snapshot Bursaspor to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Bursaspor