Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK preview
In the match between Keçiörengücü and Iğdır FK, the 1X2 probabilities show a 52% chance for Keçiörengücü to win, compared to 22% for Iğdır FK. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% probability. The expected goals indicate Keçiörengücü at 1.71 and Iğdır FK at 1.04, suggesting a tighter contest than the probabilities imply.
While Over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance and both teams to score stands at 54%, these figures could shift if Iğdır FK's recent form of 4 wins in their last 5 matches continues. Keçiörengücü's recent form shows 3 draws in their last 5 games, which may also impact the outcome.
Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK: model vs market
| Source | Keçiörengücü | Draw | Iğdır FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | +9% | +1% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.98.
- The market prices Keçiörengücü below the model: +8.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Keçiörengücü, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keçiörengücü | 2.08 | 2.08 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Iğdır FK | 3.08 | 3.09 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Keçiörengücü and Iğdır FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Keçiörengücü / Iğdır FK)
- 1.20 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Keçiörengücü / Iğdır FK)
- 0.71 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Keçiörengücü goals. Columns: Iğdır FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keçiörengücü | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Iğdır FK | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Keçiörengücü or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Iğdır FK) | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Keçiörengücü win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Keçiörengücü and Iğdır FK recent form
Keçiörengücü
3W 3D 0L
Iğdır FK
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Keçiörengücü at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Iğdır FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Keçiörengücü at home only, Iğdır FK away only.
Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Keçiörengücü 1 · draws 0 · Iğdır FK 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | Iğdır FK | 0-1 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 2025-11-29 | Keçiörengücü | 1-2 | Iğdır FK | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Pendikspor v Vanspor FK — match page 2026-10-13
- Batman Petrolspor v İstanbulspor — match page 2026-10-14
- Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor 2026-10-14
- Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük 2026-10-15
- Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-10-15
- Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor — team news & stats 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Keçiörengücü, previous: Bodrum FK – Keçiörengücü, 2026-10-09
- Iğdır FK, previous: Iğdır FK vs Batman Petrolspor prediction