Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük preview
In the upcoming match between Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük, Mardin 1969 has a 43% chance of winning compared to Fatih Karagümrük's 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 14% probability. Mardin 1969's expected goals stand at 1.19, while Fatih Karagümrük has 0.84.
While Mardin 1969 is favoured to win, the match could be affected by their recent form, which shows two losses in the last three games. Additionally, the probability for both teams to score is 41%, indicating a chance that the match could see goals from both sides. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük: model vs market
| Source | Mardin 1969 | Draw | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 33% | 25% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Edge | +7% | +5% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.84.
- The market prices Mardin 1969 below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mardin 1969, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mardin 1969 | 2.55 | 2.58 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.38 | +0.02 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 2.49 | 2.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.02
- Attack rating (Mardin 1969 / Fatih Karagümrük)
- 0.82 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Mardin 1969 / Fatih Karagümrük)
- 0.69 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mardin 1969 goals. Columns: Fatih Karagümrük goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mardin 1969 | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.45 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mardin 1969 or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Fatih Karagümrük) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mardin 1969 win by 2+ | 19% | 5.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük recent form
Mardin 1969
2W 2D 2L
Fatih Karagümrük
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mardin 1969 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Fatih Karagümrük away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mardin 1969 at home only, Fatih Karagümrük away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Pendikspor v Vanspor FK — match page 2026-10-13
- Batman Petrolspor v İstanbulspor — match page 2026-10-14
- Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor 2026-10-14
- Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-10-15
- Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor — team news & stats 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Mardin 1969, previous: Bursaspor – Mardin 1969, 2026-10-11
- Fatih Karagümrük, previous: Fatih Karagümrük v Muğlaspor analysis