Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor preview
In the upcoming match between Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor, the 1X2 probabilities show Manisa F.K. at 41%, Esenler Erokspor at 32%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 16% chance. Manisa F.K. has expected goals of 1.54, while Esenler Erokspor has 0.66.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Manisa F.K. recording L-D-L-L-D-D and Esenler Erokspor at L-D-L-D-L-D in their last matches. The model indicates a 38% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance for both teams to score. However, if either team improves their form, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor: model vs market
| Source | Manisa F.K. | Draw | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 28% | 15% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Published | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Edge | +22% | +1% | -23% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.66.
- The market prices Manisa F.K. below the model: +22.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manisa F.K., 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manisa F.K. | 2.60 | 2.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Esenler Erokspor | 2.42 | 2.42 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (Manisa F.K. / Esenler Erokspor)
- 1.01 / 0.59
- Defence rating (Manisa F.K. / Esenler Erokspor)
- 0.92 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Manisa F.K. goals. Columns: Esenler Erokspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manisa F.K. | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Esenler Erokspor | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.55 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Manisa F.K. or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Esenler Erokspor) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manisa F.K. win by 2+ | 31% | 3.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor recent form
Manisa F.K.
0W 3D 3L
Esenler Erokspor
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Manisa F.K. at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Esenler Erokspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Manisa F.K. at home only, Esenler Erokspor away only.
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Manisa F.K. 0 · draws 0 · Esenler Erokspor 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Esenler Erokspor | 3-1 | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig |
| 2025-09-20 | Manisa F.K. | 3-4 | Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Pendikspor v Vanspor FK — match page 2026-10-13
- Batman Petrolspor v İstanbulspor — match page 2026-10-14
- Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor 2026-10-14
- Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük 2026-10-15
- Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor — team news & stats 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Manisa F.K., previous: Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.: odds and pick
- Esenler Erokspor, previous: İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor prediction