Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor preview
In the upcoming match between Ümraniyespor and Boluspor, the 1X2 probabilities show Ümraniyespor at 61%, while Boluspor stands at 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 13% chance. Ümraniyespor's expected goals are 1.77, compared to Boluspor's 0.74, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score is at 44%, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 46%, suggesting that a more competitive game is possible. Recent form shows Ümraniyespor with a mixed record of W-L-L-L-D-D, while Boluspor has struggled with L-D-L-L-L-L. This context could impact the outcome significantly.
Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor: model vs market
| Source | Ümraniyespor | Draw | Boluspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Published | 63% | 23% | 15% |
| Edge | -1% | +2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ümraniyespor, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ümraniyespor | 1.49 | 1.46 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.20 | +0.05 |
| Boluspor | 6.04 | 6.23 | +0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ümraniyespor and Boluspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Ümraniyespor / Boluspor)
- 0.76 / 0.67
- Defence rating (Ümraniyespor / Boluspor)
- 0.91 / 1.45
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ümraniyespor goals. Columns: Boluspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ümraniyespor | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Boluspor | 15% | 6.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ümraniyespor or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Boluspor) | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ümraniyespor win by 2+ | 37% | 2.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ümraniyespor and Boluspor recent form
Ümraniyespor
1W 2D 3L
Boluspor
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ümraniyespor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Boluspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ümraniyespor at home only, Boluspor away only.
Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ümraniyespor 2 · draws 0 · Boluspor 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-17 | Ümraniyespor | 4-2 | Boluspor | 1. Lig |
| 2025-09-23 | Boluspor | 0-1 | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Bandırmaspor v Sivasspor — match page 2026-10-13
- Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Pendikspor v Vanspor FK — match page 2026-10-13
- Batman Petrolspor v İstanbulspor — match page 2026-10-14
- Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük 2026-10-15
- Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Ümraniyespor, previous: Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer: odds and pick
- Boluspor, previous: Boluspor v Antalyaspor analysis