Updated

1. Lig · Matchday 10

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor

· 17 Eylül Stadium, Balikesir· Referee Baydar, Emrullah

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Bandırmaspor to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BandırmasporDrawSivasspor

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBandırmasporDrawSivasspor
Model60%27%14%
Market44%28%29%
Published48%27%25%
Edge+4%0%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.65.
  • The market prices Bandırmaspor below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bandırmaspor, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.30Now 2.08 -0.22
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bandırmaspor2.302.08-0.22
Draw3.203.30+0.10
Sivasspor2.803.17+0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bandırmaspor and Sivasspor expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.62Bandırmaspor
0.65Sivasspor
Total expected goals
2.27
Attack rating (Bandırmaspor / Sivasspor)
0.99 / 1.05
Defence rating (Bandırmaspor / Sivasspor)
0.50 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.4% 5.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 1 15.6% 12.0% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% 2 13.5% 8.8% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 3 7.3% 4.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 4.3% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Bandırmaspor goals. Columns: Sivasspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bandırmaspor48%2.09
Draw27%3.66
Sivasspor25%4.02
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.52
Under 2.560%1.66
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.53
No60%1.65
Double chance1X (Bandırmaspor or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Sivasspor)52%1.92
Handicap -1Bandırmaspor win by 2+34%2.98
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bandırmaspor and Sivasspor recent form

Bandırmaspor 2W 2D 2L
Sivasspor 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bandırmaspor at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sivasspor away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bandırmaspor at home only, Sivasspor away only.

Expected lineups

Bandırmaspor lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 16 A. Alkan
  2. 6 Lucas Lima
  3. 34 Enes Aydın
  4. 14 Y. Kocatürk
  5. 77 H. Bilgiç
  6. 20 E. Çinemre
  7. 92 R. Mulumba
  8. 23 K. Donertas
  9. 11 T. Kehinde
  10. 90 Recep Yalın Dilek
  11. 17 Emirhan Ayhan

Bench: A. Biler, M. Genç, G. Bruno, M. Gümüşkaya, Yasin Midilic, E. Özbek, A. Ülgen, Dame Seck, B. Bekaroğlu, F. Bekleviç

Sivasspor lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 G. Bakırbaş
  2. 77 Y. Kefkir
  3. 4 M. Çelik
  4. 34 T. Tuzlacik
  5. 26 M. Yıldırım
  6. 20 M. Mohammed
  7. 66 Oguzhan Aksoy
  8. 27 V. Ethemi
  9. 28 S. Kavrazlı
  10. 30 E. Ceesay
  11. 9 R. Manaj

Bench: B. Kapacak, C. Duodu, E. Gökay, C. Çelik, Eymen Yurdcu, Y. Baynazoglu, M. Albayrak, Yilmaz Cin

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Bandırmaspor 1 · draws 0 · Sivasspor 4.

BandırmasporDrawsSivasspor
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Bandırmaspor1-0Sivasspor1. Lig
2025-12-27Sivasspor2-0Bandırmaspor1. Lig
2022-02-09Bandırmaspor2-4SivassporTürkiye Kupası
2017-05-07Sivasspor3-0Bandırmaspor1. Lig
2016-12-17Bandırmaspor0-1Sivasspor1. Lig

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match