Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Bandırmaspor	Draw	Sivasspor
Model	60%	28%	12%
Market	—	—	—
Published	60%	28%	12%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.56.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Bandırmaspor and Sivasspor expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Bandırmaspor

0.56Sivasspor

Total expected goals: 2.10
Attack rating (Bandırmaspor / Sivasspor): 0.92 / 0.86
Defence rating (Bandırmaspor / Sivasspor): 0.53 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.4% 5.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1 17.8% 11.7% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 2 14.5% 8.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 3 7.4% 4.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 4.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Bandırmaspor goals. Columns: Sivasspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 35%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 35%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Bandırmaspor	60%	1.66
	Draw	28%	3.63
	Sivasspor	12%	8.09
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	35%	2.86
	Under 2.5	65%	1.54
Both teams to score	Yes	35%	2.88
	No	65%	1.53
Double chance	1X (Bandırmaspor or draw)	88%	1.14
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Sivasspor)	40%	2.51
Handicap -1	Bandırmaspor win by 2+	33%	3.04
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Bandırmaspor and Sivasspor recent form

Bandırmaspor 1W 3D 2L

Sivasspor 1W 4D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bandırmaspor at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-2
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 0.60
Clean sheets: 2 of 5

They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sivasspor away

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-2
Win rate: 25%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 1.50
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bandırmaspor at home only, Sivasspor away only.

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Bandırmaspor 1 · draws 0 · Sivasspor 1.

50% 0% 50%

BandırmasporDrawsSivasspor

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-02	Bandırmaspor	1-0	Sivasspor	1. Lig
2025-12-27	Sivasspor	2-0	Bandırmaspor	1. Lig

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK — team news & stats 2026-10-13
Pendikspor v Vanspor FK — match page 2026-10-13

Prediction snapshot Bandırmaspor to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Bandırmaspor