Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor: model vs market
| Source | Bodrum FK | Draw | Bandırmaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 38% | 33% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Published | 34% | 31% | 34% |
| Edge | -6% | +9% | -2% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bandırmaspor, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodrum FK | 2.12 | 2.51 | +0.39 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.12 | -0.18 |
| Bandırmaspor | 3.30 | 2.58 | -0.72 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bodrum FK and Bandırmaspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.62
- Attack rating (Bodrum FK / Bandırmaspor)
- 0.89 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Bodrum FK / Bandırmaspor)
- 0.70 / 0.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bodrum FK goals. Columns: Bandırmaspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bodrum FK | 34% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Bandırmaspor | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.12 |
| No | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bodrum FK or draw) | 66% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Bandırmaspor) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bandırmaspor win by 2+ | 11% | 8.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bodrum FK and Bandırmaspor recent form
Bodrum FK
2W 2D 2L
Bandırmaspor
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bodrum FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bandırmaspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bodrum FK at home only, Bandırmaspor away only.
Expected lineups
Bodrum FK lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Diogo Sousa
- 23 F. Apaydın
- 4 A. Yılmaz
- 5 A. Ajeti
- 77 B. Yavuzay
- 6 J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
- 20 Yusuf Sertkaya
- 11 E. Bilsel
- 82 B. BaÅkan
- 19 Berkay Aslan
- 26 V. Aboubakar
Bench: M. Erdilman, Kerem Kayaarasi, F. Loshaj, E. Arslan, K. Cengizer, B. Tosun, I. Tarim, E. Kaplan, R. Providence
Bandırmaspor lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 16 A. Alkan
- 6 Lucas Lima
- 34 Enes Aydın
- 14 Y. Kocatürk
- 22 A. Ülgen
- 8 D. Liço
- 11 T. Kehinde
- 10 M. Gümüşkaya
- 23 K. Donertas
- 17 Emirhan Ayhan
- 90 Recep Yalın Dilek
Bench: A. Biler, M. Genç, G. Bruno, Yasin Midilic, E. Çinemre, Dame Seck, H. Bilgiç, B. Bekaroğlu, R. Mulumba, F. Bekleviç
Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Bodrum FK 2 · draws 4 · Bandırmaspor 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Bodrum FK | 0-0 | Bandırmaspor | 1. Lig |
| 2025-12-08 | Bandırmaspor | 2-0 | Bodrum FK | 1. Lig |
| 2024-03-09 | Bandırmaspor | 0-0 | Bodrum FK | 1. Lig |
| 2023-10-22 | Bodrum FK | 2-1 | Bandırmaspor | 1. Lig |
| 2023-03-29 | Bandırmaspor | 0-4 | Bodrum FK | 1. Lig |
| 2022-10-23 | Bodrum FK | 1-1 | Bandırmaspor | 1. Lig |
| 2020-03-15 | Bodrum FK | 0-1 | Bandırmaspor | 2. Lig |
| 2019-11-03 | Bandırmaspor | 0-0 | Bodrum FK | 2. Lig |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Sivasspor v Sarıyer — match page 2026-10-17
- Iğdır FK vs Boluspor 2026-10-18
- Kayserispor vs Batman Petrolspor 2026-10-18
- Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor — match page 2026-10-18
- İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor 2026-10-18
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor 2026-10-19
- Bursaspor vs Pendikspor — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Bodrum FK, previous: Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK: odds and pick
- Bandırmaspor, previous: Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor: odds and pick
- Bandırmaspor, next: Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK prediction