Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor preview
In the match between Manisa F.K. and Muğlaspor, the 1X2 probabilities show Manisa F.K. at 42%, while Muğlaspor and a draw are both at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance according to our model. Manisa F.K. has an expected goals figure of 1.37, compared to Muğlaspor's 1.10.
The prediction for Over 2.5 goals stands at 45%, while both teams to score is at 51%. Manisa F.K. has struggled recently with a record of L-L-D-L-L-D, while Muğlaspor's form is better, showing D-D-D-D-W-W. These contrasting forms could impact the outcome, making the prediction less certain.
Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor: model vs market
| Source | Manisa F.K. | Draw | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Published | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Edge | +10% | 0% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.96.
- The market prices Manisa F.K. below the model: +10.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manisa F.K., 6 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manisa F.K. | 2.20 | 2.27 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.25 | -0.05 |
| Muğlaspor | 2.90 | 2.83 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Manisa F.K. and Muğlaspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Manisa F.K. / Muğlaspor)
- 1.04 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Manisa F.K. / Muğlaspor)
- 1.00 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Manisa F.K. goals. Columns: Muğlaspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manisa F.K. | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Muğlaspor | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Manisa F.K. or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Muğlaspor) | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manisa F.K. win by 2+ | 27% | 3.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Manisa F.K. and Muğlaspor recent form
Manisa F.K.
0W 2D 4L
Muğlaspor
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Manisa F.K. at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Muğlaspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Manisa F.K. at home only, Muğlaspor away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Bodrum FK v Bandırmaspor — match page 2026-10-17
- Iğdır FK vs Boluspor 2026-10-18
- Kayserispor vs Batman Petrolspor 2026-10-18
- Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor — match page 2026-10-18
- İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor 2026-10-18
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Bursaspor vs Pendikspor — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Manisa F.K., previous: Manisa F.K. – Esenler Erokspor, 2026-10-15
- Muğlaspor, previous: Muğlaspor v Bursaspor analysis
- Muğlaspor, next: Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor analysis