Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor preview
In the fixture between Vanspor FK and Ümraniyespor, the 1X2 probabilities show Vanspor FK at 37%, Ümraniyespor at 33%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 10% chance of occurring. Both teams to score stands at 51%, indicating a fairly balanced matchup.
Vanspor FK's expected goals are 1.25, while Ümraniyespor's are 1.18, suggesting a close contest. However, Vanspor FK's recent form shows W-L-L-D-D-L, while Ümraniyespor has D-W-L-L-L-D. This recent performance could impact the outcome, making it possible for either team to secure a win.
Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor: model vs market
| Source | Vanspor FK | Draw | Ümraniyespor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Published | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vanspor FK, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanspor FK | 2.30 | 2.19 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.25 | -0.05 |
| Ümraniyespor | 2.79 | 3.00 | +0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vanspor FK and Ümraniyespor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.43
- Attack rating (Vanspor FK / Ümraniyespor)
- 0.85 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Vanspor FK / Ümraniyespor)
- 1.25 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vanspor FK goals. Columns: Ümraniyespor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vanspor FK | 40% | 2.48 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Ümraniyespor | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vanspor FK or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Ümraniyespor) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vanspor FK win by 2+ | 17% | 6.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vanspor FK and Ümraniyespor recent form
Vanspor FK
1W 2D 3L
Ümraniyespor
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vanspor FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ümraniyespor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vanspor FK at home only, Ümraniyespor away only.
Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Vanspor FK 1 · draws 0 · Ümraniyespor 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Ümraniyespor | 1-2 | Vanspor FK | 1. Lig |
| 2025-12-14 | Vanspor FK | 0-1 | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| 2012-03-25 | Ümraniyespor | 2-1 | Vanspor FK | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
| 2011-12-22 | Vanspor FK | 0-1 | Ümraniyespor | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Sivasspor v Sarıyer — match page 2026-10-17
- Bodrum FK v Bandırmaspor — match page 2026-10-17
- Iğdır FK vs Boluspor 2026-10-18
- Kayserispor vs Batman Petrolspor 2026-10-18
- İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor 2026-10-18
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor 2026-10-19
- Bursaspor vs Pendikspor — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Vanspor FK, previous: Pendikspor v Vanspor FK analysis
- Vanspor FK, next: Boluspor v Vanspor FK analysis
- Ümraniyespor, previous: Ümraniyespor v Boluspor analysis
- Ümraniyespor, next: Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor: odds and pick