Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor preview
In the upcoming match between Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor, the 1X2 probabilities show Ümraniyespor at 35%, Sivasspor at 33%, and a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Ümraniyespor, with a probability of 11%. The expected goals are closely matched, with Ümraniyespor at 1.15 and Sivasspor at 1.12.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 40%, while both teams to score is at 47%. Recent form indicates Ümraniyespor has struggled with D-W-L-L-L-D, while Sivasspor has shown more consistency with D-D-W-D-D-W. These factors could influence the outcome, especially if either team can capitalize on their scoring opportunities.
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor: model vs market
| Source | Ümraniyespor | Draw | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 31% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 31% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (Ümraniyespor / Sivasspor)
- 0.76 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Ümraniyespor / Sivasspor)
- 0.91 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ümraniyespor goals. Columns: Sivasspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ümraniyespor | 35% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Sivasspor | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ümraniyespor or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Sivasspor) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ümraniyespor win by 2+ | 15% | 6.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor recent form
Ümraniyespor
1W 2D 3L
Sivasspor
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ümraniyespor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sivasspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ümraniyespor at home only, Sivasspor away only.
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ümraniyespor 1 · draws 0 · Sivasspor 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Sivasspor | 1-0 | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| 2025-11-01 | Ümraniyespor | 1-0 | Sivasspor | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Boluspor vs Vanspor FK — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Bandırmaspor v Iğdır FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor — match page 2026-10-24
- Sarıyer v Fatih Karagümrük — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Ümraniyespor, previous: Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor analysis
- Sivasspor, previous: Sivasspor vs Sarıyer prediction