Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor preview
In the match between Muğlaspor and İstanbulspor, the 1X2 probabilities show Muğlaspor at 50%, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 10%. The model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 57%.
Muğlaspor's expected goals stand at 1.72, while İstanbulspor's are lower at 1.14. This disparity suggests Muğlaspor may dominate the scoring. However, recent form could affect the outcome, as Muğlaspor has only one win in their last six matches, while İstanbulspor has lost five of their last six.
Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor: model vs market
| Source | Muğlaspor | Draw | İstanbulspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.14.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Muğlaspor and İstanbulspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Muğlaspor / İstanbulspor)
- 0.78 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Muğlaspor / İstanbulspor)
- 0.93 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Muğlaspor goals. Columns: İstanbulspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Muğlaspor | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| İstanbulspor | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Muğlaspor or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or İstanbulspor) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Muğlaspor win by 2+ | 28% | 3.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Muğlaspor and İstanbulspor recent form
Muğlaspor
1W 4D 1L
İstanbulspor
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Muğlaspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
İstanbulspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Muğlaspor at home only, İstanbulspor away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Boluspor vs Vanspor FK — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor 2026-10-24
- Bandırmaspor v Iğdır FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Sarıyer v Fatih Karagümrük — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Muğlaspor, previous: Manisa F.K. – Muğlaspor, 2026-10-19
- İstanbulspor, previous: İstanbulspor v Antalyaspor analysis