Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 preview
Esenler Erokspor faces Mardin 1969 with a 40% chance to win compared to Mardin's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. Esenler Erokspor's expected goals stand at 0.65, while Mardin 1969 has a higher expected goals of 0.93.
While Esenler Erokspor has struggled recently with a record of W-L-D-L-D-L, Mardin 1969 shows slightly better form at W-L-L-W-D-D. The low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 21% and both teams to score at 30% suggest a tight match, where a defensive performance from either side could lead to a different outcome.
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969: model vs market
| Source | Esenler Erokspor | Draw | Mardin 1969 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 38% | 40% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Published | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Edge | -25% | +11% | +14% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Esenler Erokspor, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Esenler Erokspor | 1.99 | 1.92 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.28 | +0.03 |
| Mardin 1969 | 3.48 | 3.59 | +0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Esenler Erokspor and Mardin 1969 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.52
- Attack rating (Esenler Erokspor / Mardin 1969)
- 0.60 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Esenler Erokspor / Mardin 1969)
- 0.85 / 0.63
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Esenler Erokspor goals. Columns: Mardin 1969 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 29%
- No goals (0–0)
- 23%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Esenler Erokspor | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Mardin 1969 | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 20% | 5.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29% | 3.50 |
| No | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Esenler Erokspor or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Mardin 1969) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Esenler Erokspor win by 2+ | 6% | 16.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Esenler Erokspor and Mardin 1969 recent form
Esenler Erokspor
1W 3D 2L
Mardin 1969
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Esenler Erokspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mardin 1969 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor at home only, Mardin 1969 away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Iğdır FK vs Boluspor 2026-10-18
- Kayserispor vs Batman Petrolspor 2026-10-18
- Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor — match page 2026-10-18
- İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor 2026-10-18
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor 2026-10-19
- Bursaspor vs Pendikspor — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Esenler Erokspor, previous: Manisa F.K. – Esenler Erokspor, 2026-10-15
- Mardin 1969, previous: Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük prediction