Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor preview
In the 1. Lig fixture between Muğlaspor and Bursaspor, the 1X2 probabilities show Bursaspor at 46% to win, while Muğlaspor sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Bursaspor comes into this match with a strong recent form of 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, while Muğlaspor has drawn 3 of their last 6.
The model indicates a 43% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score. However, if Muğlaspor can improve their attacking output, they could challenge Bursaspor’s defense, potentially affecting the expected goals of 1.15 for Muğlaspor and 1.24 for Bursaspor.
Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor: model vs market
| Source | Muğlaspor | Draw | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Published | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Edge | +9% | +3% | -12% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bursaspor, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muğlaspor | 3.88 | 3.88 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Bursaspor | 1.88 | 1.88 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Muğlaspor and Bursaspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.39
- Attack rating (Muğlaspor / Bursaspor)
- 0.88 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Muğlaspor / Bursaspor)
- 0.80 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Muğlaspor goals. Columns: Bursaspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Muğlaspor | 26% | 3.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Bursaspor | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Muğlaspor or draw) | 54% | 1.86 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Bursaspor) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bursaspor win by 2+ | 17% | 5.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Muğlaspor and Bursaspor recent form
Muğlaspor
2W 4D 0L
Bursaspor
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Muğlaspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bursaspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Muğlaspor at home only, Bursaspor away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Pendikspor v Vanspor FK — match page 2026-10-13
- Batman Petrolspor v İstanbulspor — match page 2026-10-14
- Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor 2026-10-14
- Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük 2026-10-15
- Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Muğlaspor, previous: Fatih Karagümrük v Muğlaspor analysis
- Bursaspor, previous: Bursaspor – Mardin 1969, 2026-10-11