Updated

1. Lig · Matchday 10

Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK

· Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium, Istanbul· Referee Buyuk, Yucel

Full time1 – 4

Alin prediction was Sarıyer to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SarıyerDrawBodrum FK

Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSarıyerDrawBodrum FK
Model44%35%21%
Market46%28%26%
Published45%30%25%
Edge0%+2%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.08 vs 0.65.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sarıyer, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.31Now 1.98 -0.33
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sarıyer2.311.98-0.33
Draw3.253.25+0.00
Bodrum FK2.753.44+0.69

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sarıyer and Bodrum FK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.08Sarıyer
0.65Bodrum FK
Total expected goals
1.73
Attack rating (Sarıyer / Bodrum FK)
0.97 / 0.68
Defence rating (Sarıyer / Bodrum FK)
0.78 / 0.69

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.9% 10.3% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 1 17.9% 13.7% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 2 10.3% 6.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 3 3.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Sarıyer goals. Columns: Bodrum FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 81%
Over 1.5 53%
Over 2.5 25%
Over 3.5 10%
Both teams to score
33%
No goals (0–0)
19%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sarıyer45%2.20
Draw30%3.37
Bodrum FK25%4.01
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.525%3.98
Under 2.575%1.34
Both teams to scoreYes33%3.04
No67%1.49
Double chance1X (Sarıyer or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Bodrum FK)55%1.83
Handicap -1Sarıyer win by 2+19%5.31
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sarıyer and Bodrum FK recent form

Sarıyer 3W 2D 1L
Bodrum FK 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sarıyer at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Bodrum FK away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sarıyer at home only, Bodrum FK away only.

Expected lineups

Sarıyer lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 13 I. Šehić
  2. 5 E. Korkmazoğlu
  3. 88 C. Osmanpaşa
  4. 4 E. Dikmen
  5. 77 C. Karayel
  6. 8 Marcos Silva
  7. 11 E. Karadağ
  8. 14 T. Ergül
  9. 10 E. Karaca
  10. 93 M. Thiam
  11. 90 E. Eze

Bench: F. Akyüz, J. Attamah, B. Alici, B. Kör, D. Davas, Ü. Ergün, K. Arslan, H. Yeşilyurt, F. Gedik, A. Biyogo Poko

Bodrum FK lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 Diogo Sousa
  2. 23 F. Apaydın
  3. 4 A. Yılmaz
  4. 5 A. Ajeti
  5. 77 B. Yavuzay
  6. 20 Yusuf Sertkaya
  7. 10 Fernando Andrade
  8. 82 B. Başkan
  9. 6 J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
  10. 11 E. Bilsel
  11. 26 V. Aboubakar

Bench: M. Erdilman, F. Loshaj, E. Arslan, Berkay Aslan, B. Tosun, Devrim Sahin, I. Tarim, E. Kaplan, R. Providence

Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Sarıyer 5 · draws 0 · Bodrum FK 2.

SarıyerDrawsBodrum FK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Bodrum FK0-1Sarıyer1. Lig
2025-12-27Sarıyer1-0Bodrum FK1. Lig
2022-03-05Bodrum FK3-0Sarıyer2. Lig
2021-10-31Sarıyer1-2Bodrum FK2. Lig
2019-03-17Sarıyer3-1Bodrum FK2. Lig
2018-10-27Bodrum FK1-3Sarıyer2. Lig
2016-09-21Sarıyer1-0Bodrum FKTürkiye Kupası

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match