Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 7

ES Setif vs Témouchent

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was ES Setif to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ES SetifDrawTémouchent

ES Setif vs Témouchent: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceES SetifDrawTémouchent
Model63%26%11%
Market66%24%10%
Published65%24%10%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.54.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

ES Setif vs Témouchent odds movement

Median bookmaker price on ES Setif, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-23.

Opened 1.39Now 1.36 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
ES Setif1.391.36-0.03
Draw3.783.78+0.00
Témouchent9.138.75-0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

ES Setif and Témouchent expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61ES Setif
0.54Témouchent
Total expected goals
2.14
Attack rating (ES Setif / Témouchent)
1.15 / 0.69
Defence rating (ES Setif / Témouchent)
0.86 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ES Setif vs Témouchent score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.8% 5.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 1 17.8% 11.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 2 15.1% 8.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 3 8.1% 4.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 4.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: ES Setif goals. Columns: Témouchent goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ES Setif vs Témouchent goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
34%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ES Setif vs Témouchent

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2ES Setif65%1.53
Draw24%4.10
Témouchent10%9.57
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.76
Under 2.564%1.57
Both teams to scoreYes34%2.93
No66%1.52
Double chance1X (ES Setif or draw)90%1.12
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Témouchent)35%2.87
Handicap -1ES Setif win by 2+35%2.82
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

ES Setif and Témouchent recent form

ES Setif 2W 2D 2L
Témouchent 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

ES Setif at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Témouchent away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: ES Setif at home only, Témouchent away only.

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match