ES Setif vs Témouchent Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

ES Setif vs Témouchent: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ES Setif	Draw	Témouchent
Model	59%	26%	15%
Market	—	—	—
Published	59%	26%	15%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.73.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ES Setif and Témouchent expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68ES Setif

0.73Témouchent

Total expected goals: 2.41
Attack rating (ES Setif / Témouchent): 1.30 / 0.85
Defence rating (ES Setif / Témouchent): 0.96 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ES Setif vs Témouchent score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.1% 5.5% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1 14.0% 12.1% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.7% 9.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 3 7.1% 5.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 4.3% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: ES Setif goals. Columns: Témouchent goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ES Setif vs Témouchent goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 70%

Over 2.5 43%

Over 3.5 22%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ES Setif vs Témouchent

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ES Setif	59%	1.70
	Draw	26%	3.83
	Témouchent	15%	6.72
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	43%	2.32
	Under 2.5	57%	1.76
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.32
	No	57%	1.76
Double chance	1X (ES Setif or draw)	85%	1.17
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Témouchent)	41%	2.44
Handicap -1	ES Setif win by 2+	34%	2.97
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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