Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 7

USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was USM Alger to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
USM AlgerDrawCR Belouizdad

USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUSM AlgerDrawCR Belouizdad
Model41%31%28%
Market35%32%33%
Published36%32%32%
Edge+2%0%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad odds movement

Median bookmaker price on USM Alger, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-23.

Opened 2.59Now 2.59 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
USM Alger2.592.59+0.00
Draw2.882.80-0.08
CR Belouizdad2.802.71-0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

USM Alger and CR Belouizdad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27USM Alger
1.02CR Belouizdad
Total expected goals
2.28
Attack rating (USM Alger / CR Belouizdad)
1.10 / 1.27
Defence rating (USM Alger / CR Belouizdad)
0.89 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.5% 9.1% 5.3% 1.8% 0.6% 1 11.6% 14.4% 6.7% 2.3% 0.7% 2 8.2% 8.3% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 3 3.4% 3.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: USM Alger goals. Columns: CR Belouizdad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2USM Alger36%2.76
Draw32%3.15
CR Belouizdad32%3.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.50
Under 2.560%1.66
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.12
No53%1.89
Double chance1X (USM Alger or draw)68%1.47
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or CR Belouizdad)64%1.57
Handicap -1USM Alger win by 2+19%5.32
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

USM Alger and CR Belouizdad recent form

USM Alger 3W 2D 1L
CR Belouizdad 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

USM Alger at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CR Belouizdad away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: USM Alger at home only, CR Belouizdad away only.

USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: USM Alger 4 · draws 5 · CR Belouizdad 1.

USM AlgerDrawsCR Belouizdad
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-02USM Alger1-1CR BelouizdadAlgeria Ligue 1
2026-04-30USM Alger2-1CR BelouizdadCoupe Nationale
2025-11-08CR Belouizdad0-0USM AlgerAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-07-05USM Alger2-0CR BelouizdadCoupe Nationale
2025-03-16CR Belouizdad1-1USM AlgerLigue 1
2024-10-18USM Alger0-0CR BelouizdadLigue 1
2024-04-24CR Belouizdad0-0USM AlgerCoupe Nationale
2024-03-15CR Belouizdad0-1USM AlgerLigue 1
2023-11-10USM Alger2-1CR BelouizdadLigue 1
2023-07-07CR Belouizdad3-1USM AlgerLigue 1

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match