USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	USM Alger	Draw	CR Belouizdad
Model	38%	30%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	38%	30%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

USM Alger and CR Belouizdad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28USM Alger

1.14CR Belouizdad

Total expected goals: 2.43
Attack rating (USM Alger / CR Belouizdad): 1.22 / 1.31
Defence rating (USM Alger / CR Belouizdad): 0.97 / 0.77

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.1% 8.8% 5.8% 2.2% 0.8% 1 10.0% 14.3% 7.4% 2.8% 1.0% 2 7.3% 8.3% 4.8% 1.8% 0.7% 3 3.1% 3.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: USM Alger goals. Columns: CR Belouizdad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 44%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	USM Alger	38%	2.60
	Draw	30%	3.34
	CR Belouizdad	32%	3.17
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44%	2.29
	Under 2.5	56%	1.78
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.98
	No	49%	2.02
Double chance	1X (USM Alger or draw)	68%	1.46
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or CR Belouizdad)	62%	1.62
Handicap -1	USM Alger win by 2+	18%	5.63
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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