Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 10Postponed

JS Kabylie vs USM Alger

· Hocine Ait Ahmed Stadium, Tizi Ouzou

Alin prediction JS Kabylie to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
JS KabylieDrawUSM Alger
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.77.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

JS Kabylie vs USM Alger: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJS KabylieDrawUSM Alger
Model57%27%16%
Market———
Published57%27%16%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

JS Kabylie and USM Alger expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.97JS Kabylie
0.77USM Alger
Total expected goals
2.74
Attack rating (JS Kabylie / USM Alger)
1.46 / 1.17
Defence rating (JS Kabylie / USM Alger)
0.73 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

JS Kabylie vs USM Alger score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 4.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1 11.8% 10.8% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.5% 9.6% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3 8.2% 6.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 6.3% 4.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: JS Kabylie goals. Columns: USM Alger goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

JS Kabylie vs USM Alger goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for JS Kabylie vs USM Alger

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2JS Kabylie57%1.77
Draw27%3.71
USM Alger16%6.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.33
Under 2.557%1.75
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.26
No56%1.79
Double chance1X (JS Kabylie or draw)84%1.20
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or USM Alger)43%2.30
Handicap -1JS Kabylie win by 2+40%2.48
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

JS Kabylie and USM Alger recent form

JS Kabylie 4W 1D 1L
USM Alger 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

JS Kabylie at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

USM Alger away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: JS Kabylie at home only, USM Alger away only.

JS Kabylie vs USM Alger head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: JS Kabylie 1 · draws 0 · USM Alger 1.

JS KabylieDrawsUSM Alger
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-25USM Alger0-1JS KabylieAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-12-08JS Kabylie1-2USM AlgerAlgeria Ligue 1

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match