Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 10Postponed

Témouchent vs JS El Biar

Alin prediction JS El Biar to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TémouchentDrawJS El Biar
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Témouchent vs JS El Biar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTémouchentDrawJS El Biar
Model33%31%37%
Market———
Published33%31%37%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Témouchent and JS El Biar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.34Témouchent
1.21JS El Biar
Total expected goals
2.55
Attack rating (Témouchent / JS El Biar)
0.82 / 1.34
Defence rating (Témouchent / JS El Biar)
1.01 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Témouchent vs JS El Biar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.0% 8.2% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9% 1 9.2% 13.9% 7.7% 3.1% 1.2% 2 7.0% 8.5% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8% 3 3.1% 3.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Témouchent goals. Columns: JS El Biar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Témouchent vs JS El Biar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Témouchent vs JS El Biar

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Témouchent33%3.04
Draw31%3.27
JS El Biar37%2.73
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.38
Under 2.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.03
No51%1.97
Double chance1X (Témouchent or draw)63%1.58
12 (either side)69%1.44
X2 (draw or JS El Biar)67%1.49
Handicap -1JS El Biar win by 2+14%7.04
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Témouchent and JS El Biar recent form

Témouchent 2W 1D 3L
JS El Biar 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Témouchent at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

JS El Biar away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Témouchent at home only, JS El Biar away only.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match