Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 10Postponed

ES Setif vs US Biskra

Alin prediction ES Setif to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ES SetifDrawUS Biskra
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.59.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

ES Setif vs US Biskra: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceES SetifDrawUS Biskra
Model78%16%6%
Market———
Published78%16%6%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.59.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ES Setif and US Biskra expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.20ES Setif
0.59US Biskra
Total expected goals
2.80
Attack rating (ES Setif / US Biskra)
1.10 / 0.68
Defence rating (ES Setif / US Biskra)
0.97 / 1.48

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ES Setif vs US Biskra score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 2.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1 12.7% 8.8% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 2 14.8% 8.8% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 3 10.9% 6.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 10.0% 5.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: ES Setif goals. Columns: US Biskra goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ES Setif vs US Biskra goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
37%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ES Setif vs US Biskra

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2ES Setif78%1.29
Draw16%6.06
US Biskra6%17.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.83
Under 2.545%2.20
Both teams to scoreYes37%2.68
No63%1.60
Double chance1X (ES Setif or draw)94%1.06
12 (either side)84%1.20
X2 (draw or US Biskra)22%4.48
Handicap -1ES Setif win by 2+50%2.00
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

ES Setif and US Biskra recent form

ES Setif 1W 2D 3L
US Biskra 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

ES Setif at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

US Biskra away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: ES Setif at home only, US Biskra away only.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match