Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 9

US Biskra vs ASO Chlef

· 18 February Stadium, Biskra

Alin prediction US Biskra to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
US BiskraDrawASO Chlef
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

US Biskra vs ASO Chlef preview

In the fixture between US Biskra and ASO Chlef, the 1X2 probabilities show US Biskra at 39%, a draw at 34%, and ASO Chlef at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs with a 15% probability.

Both teams have struggled recently, with US Biskra recording three losses and a draw in their last five matches, while ASO Chlef has two draws and three losses in their last five. The expected goals are close, with US Biskra at 1.10 and ASO Chlef at 1.03. The low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 29% and both teams to score at 38% suggest that scoring may be limited, which could affect the outcome.

US Biskra vs ASO Chlef: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUS BiskraDrawASO Chlef
Model39%34%27%
Market———
Published39%34%27%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

US Biskra and ASO Chlef expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.10US Biskra
1.02ASO Chlef
Total expected goals
2.13
Attack rating (US Biskra / ASO Chlef)
0.68 / 0.78
Defence rating (US Biskra / ASO Chlef)
1.49 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

US Biskra vs ASO Chlef score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.3% 10.8% 6.2% 2.1% 0.7% 1 11.8% 14.8% 6.9% 2.3% 0.7% 2 7.3% 7.4% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 3 2.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: US Biskra goals. Columns: ASO Chlef goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

US Biskra vs ASO Chlef goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
38%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for US Biskra vs ASO Chlef

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2US Biskra39%2.55
Draw34%2.92
ASO Chlef27%3.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.529%3.39
Under 2.571%1.42
Both teams to scoreYes38%2.61
No62%1.62
Double chance1X (US Biskra or draw)73%1.36
12 (either side)66%1.52
X2 (draw or ASO Chlef)61%1.65
Handicap -1US Biskra win by 2+15%6.62
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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US Biskra and ASO Chlef recent form

US Biskra 0W 2D 4L
ASO Chlef 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

US Biskra at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

ASO Chlef away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: US Biskra at home only, ASO Chlef away only.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot US Biskra to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on US Biskra