Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 10Postponed

ASO Chlef vs Khenchela

Alin prediction Khenchela to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ASO ChlefDrawKhenchela
  • WhyBetter recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

ASO Chlef vs Khenchela: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceASO ChlefDrawKhenchela
Model31%34%35%
Market———
Published31%34%35%
Edge———
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ASO Chlef and Khenchela expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12ASO Chlef
0.89Khenchela
Total expected goals
2.01
Attack rating (ASO Chlef / Khenchela)
0.79 / 0.84
Defence rating (ASO Chlef / Khenchela)
1.18 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ASO Chlef vs Khenchela score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.8% 10.6% 5.3% 1.6% 0.4% 1 13.6% 14.7% 6.0% 1.8% 0.5% 2 8.3% 7.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 3 3.1% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: ASO Chlef goals. Columns: Khenchela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ASO Chlef vs Khenchela goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ASO Chlef vs Khenchela

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2ASO Chlef31%3.24
Draw34%2.92
Khenchela35%2.86
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530%3.31
Under 2.570%1.43
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.53
No61%1.65
Double chance1X (ASO Chlef or draw)65%1.54
12 (either side)66%1.52
X2 (draw or Khenchela)69%1.45
Handicap -1Khenchela win by 2+10%10.09
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

ASO Chlef and Khenchela recent form

ASO Chlef 0W 3D 3L
Khenchela 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

ASO Chlef at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Khenchela away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: ASO Chlef at home only, Khenchela away only.

ASO Chlef vs Khenchela head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: ASO Chlef 0 · draws 1 · Khenchela 1.

ASO ChlefDrawsKhenchela
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-04Khenchela2-2ASO ChlefAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-08-30ASO Chlef1-2KhenchelaAlgeria Ligue 1

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match