Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 10Postponed

MC Oran vs JS Saoura

Alin prediction MC Oran to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

23% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MC OranDrawJS Saoura
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.97 vs 0.39.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

MC Oran vs JS Saoura: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMC OranDrawJS Saoura
Model50%36%14%
Market———
Published50%36%14%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.97 vs 0.39.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

MC Oran and JS Saoura expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.97MC Oran
0.39JS Saoura
Total expected goals
1.37
Attack rating (MC Oran / JS Saoura)
0.90 / 0.68
Defence rating (MC Oran / JS Saoura)
0.64 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

MC Oran vs JS Saoura score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 26.5% 9.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1 23.9% 10.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 2 12.1% 4.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 3 3.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 4+ 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: MC Oran goals. Columns: JS Saoura goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

MC Oran vs JS Saoura goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 74%
Over 1.5 41%
Over 2.5 16%
Over 3.5 5%
Both teams to score
24%
No goals (0–0)
26%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for MC Oran vs JS Saoura

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2MC Oran50%2.00
Draw36%2.76
JS Saoura14%7.27
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.519%5.35
Under 2.581%1.23
Both teams to scoreYes24%4.23
No76%1.31
Double chance1X (MC Oran or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)64%1.57
X2 (draw or JS Saoura)50%2.00
Handicap -1MC Oran win by 2+19%5.19
Push (exactly one goal)29%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

MC Oran and JS Saoura recent form

MC Oran 4W 2D 0L
JS Saoura 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

MC Oran at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 5 matches.

JS Saoura away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 5 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: MC Oran at home only, JS Saoura away only.

MC Oran vs JS Saoura head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: MC Oran 0 · draws 1 · JS Saoura 1.

MC OranDrawsJS Saoura
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-13JS Saoura2-0MC OranAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-10-18MC Oran1-1JS SaouraAlgeria Ligue 1

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match