MC Alger vs Témouchent Prediction & Betting Tips 09/10/2026

MC Alger vs Témouchent preview

In the Algeria Ligue 1 fixture between MC Alger and Témouchent, the model gives MC Alger a strong 70% chance to win, while Témouchent has only an 8% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 17% probability, indicating a low-scoring match. The expected goals show MC Alger at 1.84 and Témouchent at just 0.48, suggesting that MC Alger will dominate offensively.

However, the confidence grade is C, meaning there is some uncertainty in these predictions. Factors such as Témouchent's recent form, which includes a win and a loss, could influence the match outcome. Additionally, the chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 41% and both teams to score at 33%, indicating that a high-scoring game or goals from both sides are less likely.

MC Alger vs Témouchent: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	MC Alger	Draw	Témouchent
Model	70%	22%	8%
Market	—	—	—
Published	70%	22%	8%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.48.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

MC Alger and Témouchent expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84MC Alger

0.48Témouchent

Total expected goals: 2.32
Attack rating (MC Alger / Témouchent): 1.43 / 0.85
Defence rating (MC Alger / Témouchent): 0.63 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

MC Alger vs Témouchent score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.7% 3.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1 17.2% 9.5% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 2 16.7% 8.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 3 10.2% 4.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 7.1% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: MC Alger goals. Columns: Témouchent goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

MC Alger vs Témouchent goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 68%

Over 2.5 41%

Over 3.5 20%

Both teams to score: 33%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for MC Alger vs Témouchent

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	MC Alger	70%	1.44
	Draw	22%	4.47
	Témouchent	8%	12.51
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41%	2.45
	Under 2.5	59%	1.69
Both teams to score	Yes	33%	3.04
	No	67%	1.49
Double chance	1X (MC Alger or draw)	92%	1.09
	12 (either side)	78%	1.29
	X2 (draw or Témouchent)	30%	3.30
Handicap -1	MC Alger win by 2+	43%	2.32
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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