MC Oran vs ES Setif preview
In the Algeria Ligue 1 fixture, MC Oran faces ES Setif with a 51% probability for a home win, making them the favorites. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.51 for MC Oran compared to 1.07 for ES Setif. However, the close expected goals and the fact that both teams to score stands at 53% suggest that a tight match could unfold.
MC Oran's recent form shows three wins and one loss in their last six matches, while ES Setif has a strong run with five wins in their last six. The head-to-head record is even, with both teams having four wins each in the last ten encounters. This balance could influence the outcome, making it possible for the match to deviate from the expected results.
MC Oran vs ES Setif: model vs market
| Source | MC Oran | Draw | ES Setif |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Published | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Edge | -7% | -1% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.07.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
MC Oran and ES Setif expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (MC Oran / ES Setif)
- 1.15 / 1.30
- Defence rating (MC Oran / ES Setif)
- 0.92 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
MC Oran vs ES Setif score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: MC Oran goals. Columns: ES Setif goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
MC Oran vs ES Setif goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for MC Oran vs ES Setif
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MC Oran | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| ES Setif | 20% | 5.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (MC Oran or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or ES Setif) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | MC Oran win by 2+ | 24% | 4.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
MC Oran and ES Setif recent form
MC Oran
4W 1D 1L
ES Setif
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
MC Oran at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
ES Setif away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: MC Oran at home only, ES Setif away only.
MC Oran vs ES Setif head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: MC Oran 4 · draws 2 · ES Setif 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | ES Setif | 3-0 | MC Oran | Algeria Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-20 | MC Oran | 0-0 | ES Setif | Algeria Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-18 | ES Setif | 1-0 | MC Oran | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-07 | MC Oran | 1-0 | ES Setif | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-05-17 | MC Oran | 4-1 | ES Setif | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-12-29 | ES Setif | 1-0 | MC Oran | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-07-04 | MC Oran | 3-1 | ES Setif | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-11-29 | ES Setif | 4-0 | MC Oran | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-04-09 | ES Setif | 0-1 | MC Oran | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-11-19 | MC Oran | 0-0 | ES Setif | Ligue 1 |
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