Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 16

Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia

· Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires· Referee Sebastian Zunino

Alin prediction Boca Juniors to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Boca JuniorsDrawDefensa Y Justicia
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.90.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Boca Juniors is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Boca Juniors1.40 Draw4.75 Defensa Y Justicia9.05

Price as of

Expected return at 1.40: -11.0% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia preview

In the Liga Profesional Argentina, Boca Juniors face Defensa Y Justicia with 63% 1X2 probability for Boca to win and a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 12%. Boca Juniors have a stronger expected goals figure at 1.48 compared to Defensa Y Justicia's 0.90, indicating a more potent attack.

However, Boca's recent form shows a mixed result with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Defensa Y Justicia has 3 wins and 2 draws. This inconsistency could affect the outcome. The model suggests a 43% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score, indicating potential for a more open match than the scoreline suggests.

Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBoca JuniorsDrawDefensa Y Justicia
Model49%29%22%
Market68%21%11%
Published64%23%14%
Edge-5%+2%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.90.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Boca Juniors, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.40Now 1.36 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Boca Juniors1.401.36-0.04
Draw4.304.50+0.20
Defensa Y Justicia7.508.38+0.88

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Boca Juniors and Defensa Y Justicia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48Boca Juniors
0.90Defensa Y Justicia
Total expected goals
2.38
Attack rating (Boca Juniors / Defensa Y Justicia)
1.48 / 1.29
Defence rating (Boca Juniors / Defensa Y Justicia)
0.77 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.5% 7.1% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 1 12.5% 13.6% 5.6% 1.7% 0.5% 2 10.1% 9.1% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 3 5.0% 4.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 2.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Boca Juniors goals. Columns: Defensa Y Justicia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Boca Juniors64%1.57
Draw23%4.41
Defensa Y Justicia14%7.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.35
Under 2.557%1.74
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.12
No53%1.89
Double chance1X (Boca Juniors or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Defensa Y Justicia)36%2.75
Handicap -1Boca Juniors win by 2+26%3.90
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Boca Juniors and Defensa Y Justicia recent form

Boca Juniors 4W 1D 1L
Defensa Y Justicia 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Boca Juniors at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-6-1
Win rate
56%
Goals for / match
1.38
Goals against / match
0.56
Clean sheets
9 of 16
  • They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Defensa Y Justicia away

Record (W-D-L)
6-4-5
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Boca Juniors at home only, Defensa Y Justicia away only.

Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Boca Juniors 2 · draws 0 · Defensa Y Justicia 1.

Boca JuniorsDrawsDefensa Y Justicia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-23Defensa Y Justicia0-4Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-09-27Defensa Y Justicia2-1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-03-16Boca Juniors4-0Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 16 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Boca Juniors to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Boca Juniors
Our pick: Boca Juniors to win 18+ Bet Now