Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 16

Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia

· Víctor Legrotaglie, Mendoza· Referee Facundo Tello

Alin prediction Gimnasia M. to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Gimnasia M.DrawIndepend. Rivadavia
  • WhyThe market prices Gimnasia M. below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Gimnasia M.2.88 Draw3.20 Independ. Rivadavia2.70

Price as of

Expected return at 2.88: +4.9% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia preview

Gimnasia M. faces Independ. Rivadavia with a 37% chance of winning compared to 34% for Independ. Rivadavia. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% probability. The match also has a 53% chance of seeing Over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood for both teams to score.

Gimnasia M. has struggled recently with a form of D-L-L-W-L-D, while Independ. Rivadavia shows better form at W-L-D-L-D-W. Despite the probabilities favoring Gimnasia M., their recent performance and head-to-head record, where they have 0 wins against Independ. Rivadavia's 1 win, could lead to an unexpected outcome.

Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGimnasia M.DrawIndepend. Rivadavia
Model43%27%30%
Market34%30%36%
Published36%29%34%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • The market prices Gimnasia M. below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.88, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gimnasia M., 5 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.76Now 2.73 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gimnasia M.2.762.73-0.03
Draw3.173.10-0.07
Independ. Rivadavia2.662.62-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gimnasia M. and Independ. Rivadavia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.54Gimnasia M.
1.25Independ. Rivadavia
Total expected goals
2.79
Attack rating (Gimnasia M. / Independ. Rivadavia)
0.97 / 1.25
Defence rating (Gimnasia M. / Independ. Rivadavia)
1.10 / 1.37

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 6.5% 4.8% 2.0% 0.8% 1 8.3% 13.0% 7.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2 7.3% 9.1% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 3 3.7% 4.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 2.0% 2.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Gimnasia M. goals. Columns: Independ. Rivadavia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gimnasia M.36%2.75
Draw29%3.40
Independ. Rivadavia34%2.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.12
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.75
No43%2.34
Double chance1X (Gimnasia M. or draw)66%1.52
12 (either side)71%1.42
X2 (draw or Independ. Rivadavia)64%1.57
Handicap -1Gimnasia M. win by 2+22%4.53
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Gimnasia M. and Independ. Rivadavia recent form

Gimnasia M. 1W 2D 3L
Independ. Rivadavia 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gimnasia M. at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-3-4
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.27
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independ. Rivadavia away

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-5
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.87
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia M. at home only, Independ. Rivadavia away only.

Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Gimnasia M. 0 · draws 0 · Independ. Rivadavia 1.

Gimnasia M.DrawsIndepend. Rivadavia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-26Independ. Rivadavia5-1Gimnasia M.Liga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 16 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Gimnasia M. to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Gimnasia M.
Our pick: Gimnasia M. to win 18+ Bet Now