Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin preview
In the Liga Profesional match between Tigre and Sarmiento Junin, Tigre has a 51% chance to win, while Sarmiento Junin stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Tigre's expected goals sit at 1.54, compared to Sarmiento Junin's 1.29, suggesting a competitive matchup.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Tigre has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Sarmiento Junin has one win in their last six as well, with five draws in their recent head-to-head encounters. The model indicates a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score, but unpredictability in form could lead to a different result.
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin: model vs market
| Source | Tigre | Draw | Sarmiento Junin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 49% | 29% | 21% |
| Published | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tigre, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigre | 1.74 | 1.90 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.20 | -0.25 |
| Sarmiento Junin | 5.00 | 4.37 | -0.63 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tigre and Sarmiento Junin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Tigre / Sarmiento Junin)
- 0.99 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Tigre / Sarmiento Junin)
- 1.16 / 1.36
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tigre goals. Columns: Sarmiento Junin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigre | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Sarmiento Junin | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tigre or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Sarmiento Junin) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tigre win by 2+ | 22% | 4.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tigre and Sarmiento Junin recent form
Tigre
1W 1D 4L
Sarmiento Junin
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tigre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sarmiento Junin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-11
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.87
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Tigre at home only, Sarmiento Junin away only.
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Tigre 1 · draws 5 · Sarmiento Junin 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Sarmiento Junin | 1-0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-08-18 | Sarmiento Junin | 0-0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-01-25 | Tigre | 0-0 | Sarmiento Junin | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 2023-08-20 | Sarmiento Junin | 2-0 | Tigre | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 2023-04-14 | Tigre | 1-0 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2022-10-04 | Sarmiento Junin | 2-2 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-01-03 | Sarmiento Junin | 1-1 | Tigre | Primera Nacional |
| 2019-10-20 | Sarmiento Junin | 1-1 | Tigre | Primera Nacional |
| 2016-12-09 | Sarmiento Junin | 2-0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Barracas Central vs Racing Club 2026-11-06
- Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield 2026-11-06
- Independiente v Deportivo Riestra — match page 2026-11-06
- San Lorenzo v Platense — match page 2026-11-06
- Banfield v Atletico Tucuman — match page 2026-11-07
- Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Tigre, previous: Huracan vs Tigre prediction
- Sarmiento Junin, previous: Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central: odds and pick