Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central preview
Sarmiento Junin faces Rosario Central with a 26% chance of winning for Sarmiento compared to 45% for Rosario. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which aligns with Rosario Central's expected goals of 1.76 against Sarmiento's 1.23.
Both teams to score has a probability of 60%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 57%. Sarmiento's recent form shows 1 win in 6 matches, while Rosario Central has 4 wins in their last 6. This disparity in form could impact the match outcome, potentially leading to a different scoreline than predicted.
Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central: model vs market
| Source | Sarmiento Junin | Draw | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 25% | 53% |
| Market | 24% | 29% | 46% |
| Published | 24% | 28% | 48% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rosario Central, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin | 3.60 | 3.80 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 3.05 | 3.15 | +0.10 |
| Rosario Central | 2.15 | 2.00 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sarmiento Junin and Rosario Central expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Sarmiento Junin / Rosario Central)
- 1.24 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Sarmiento Junin / Rosario Central)
- 1.32 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sarmiento Junin goals. Columns: Rosario Central goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarmiento Junin | 24% | 4.23 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Rosario Central | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sarmiento Junin or draw) | 52% | 1.92 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Rosario Central) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosario Central win by 2+ | 31% | 3.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sarmiento Junin and Rosario Central recent form
Sarmiento Junin
1W 3D 2L
Rosario Central
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sarmiento Junin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-3
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Rosario Central away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sarmiento Junin at home only, Rosario Central away only.
Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sarmiento Junin 0 · draws 0 · Rosario Central 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Rosario Central | 2-1 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-10-24 | Sarmiento Junin | 0-1 | Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-02-23 | Rosario Central | 1-0 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Huracan vs Tigre — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Gimnasia L.P. 2026-10-30
- Racing Club v Aldosivi — match page 2026-10-31
- Defensa Y Justicia v Independiente — match page 2026-10-31
- Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba — match page 2026-10-31
- Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Estudiantes L.P. v Instituto Cordoba — match page 2026-11-01
- Boca Juniors vs River Plate — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Sarmiento Junin, previous: Gimnasia L.P. – Sarmiento Junin, 2026-10-23
- Rosario Central, previous: Rosario Central vs Huracan: odds and pick