Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo preview
In the Liga Profesional Argentina, Velez Sarsfield has a 48% chance to win against San Lorenzo, who has an 18% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 19% probability. Velez Sarsfield has shown solid recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while San Lorenzo has only 2 wins in the same period.
The model indicates a low chance for Over 2.5 goals at 26% and a 32% chance for both teams to score. Velez Sarsfield is expected to score 1.16 goals, while San Lorenzo is projected to score just 0.61. This low output from San Lorenzo could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo: model vs market
| Source | Velez Sarsfield | Draw | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 27% | 12% |
| Market | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Published | 50% | 29% | 20% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Velez Sarsfield below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Velez Sarsfield, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Velez Sarsfield | 2.00 | 1.99 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| San Lorenzo | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.09
- Attack rating (Velez Sarsfield / San Lorenzo)
- 1.50 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Velez Sarsfield / San Lorenzo)
- 0.91 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Velez Sarsfield goals. Columns: San Lorenzo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velez Sarsfield | 50% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.39 | |
| San Lorenzo | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.91 |
| No | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Velez Sarsfield or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or San Lorenzo) | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Velez Sarsfield win by 2+ | 33% | 3.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo recent form
Velez Sarsfield
3W 2D 1L
San Lorenzo
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Velez Sarsfield at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-2
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
San Lorenzo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-8-5
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Velez Sarsfield at home only, San Lorenzo away only.
Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Velez Sarsfield 0 · draws 2 · San Lorenzo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | San Lorenzo | 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-08-07 | San Lorenzo | 1-0 | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-02-08 | Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Racing Club v Aldosivi — match page 2026-10-31
- Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central 2026-10-31
- Defensa Y Justicia v Independiente — match page 2026-10-31
- Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba — match page 2026-10-31
- Estudiantes L.P. v Instituto Cordoba — match page 2026-11-01
- Boca Juniors vs River Plate — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Belgrano Cordoba vs Barracas Central 2026-11-01
- Newells Old Boys v Union Santa Fe — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Velez Sarsfield, previous: Central Cordoba de Santiago – Velez Sarsfield, 2026-10-26
- San Lorenzo, previous: San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys analysis