Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield preview
In the Liga Profesional match between Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield, the 1X2 probabilities show both teams at 36%, with a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which has a 9% chance of occurring. The expected goals indicate Union Santa Fe at 1.51 and Velez Sarsfield at 1.93, suggesting a competitive match.
The model predicts a high likelihood of goals, with Over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. However, Union Santa Fe's recent form, with 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, could impact their performance. Velez Sarsfield's better form, including 4 wins in their last 6, may also play a crucial role in the outcome.
Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield: model vs market
| Source | Union Santa Fe | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| Market | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Velez Sarsfield below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.90, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Velez Sarsfield, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 2.44 | 2.53 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.12 | 3.17 | +0.05 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 2.93 | 2.80 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.44
- Attack rating (Union Santa Fe / Velez Sarsfield)
- 1.28 / 1.54
- Defence rating (Union Santa Fe / Velez Sarsfield)
- 1.38 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union Santa Fe goals. Columns: Velez Sarsfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Santa Fe | 35% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Velez Sarsfield | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union Santa Fe or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Velez Sarsfield) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Velez Sarsfield win by 2+ | 27% | 3.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield recent form
Union Santa Fe
1W 2D 3L
Velez Sarsfield
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Union Santa Fe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-4
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Velez Sarsfield away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-8-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Union Santa Fe at home only, Velez Sarsfield away only.
Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Union Santa Fe 3 · draws 2 · Velez Sarsfield 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Velez Sarsfield | 2-2 | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-12-07 | Union Santa Fe | 1-0 | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2023-07-24 | Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2022-08-06 | Union Santa Fe | 2-1 | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-09-06 | Velez Sarsfield | 4-0 | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-04-04 | Velez Sarsfield | 4-1 | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2020-03-09 | Union Santa Fe | 0-3 | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2018-11-25 | Union Santa Fe | 0-2 | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2017-11-07 | Velez Sarsfield | 0-2 | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Barracas Central vs Racing Club 2026-11-06
- Independiente v Deportivo Riestra — match page 2026-11-06
- San Lorenzo v Platense — match page 2026-11-06
- Banfield v Atletico Tucuman — match page 2026-11-07
- Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin 2026-11-07
- Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Union Santa Fe, previous: Newells Old Boys – Union Santa Fe, 2026-11-01
- Velez Sarsfield, previous: Velez Sarsfield – San Lorenzo, 2026-10-31