Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe preview
In the Liga Profesional Argentina, Newells Old Boys have a 46% chance to win against Union Santa Fe, who have a 25% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with expected goals of 1.52 for Newells Old Boys and 0.72 for Union Santa Fe.
While Newells Old Boys have shown better recent form with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, Union Santa Fe has struggled, recording 4 losses in their last 5 games. The possibility of Over 2.5 goals stands at 39%, and both teams to score is at 41%. If Union Santa Fe can improve their attacking performance, they may challenge Newells Old Boys more than expected.
Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe: model vs market
| Source | Newells Old Boys | Draw | Union Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Published | 46% | 30% | 25% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Newells Old Boys below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Newells Old Boys, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newells Old Boys | 2.19 | 2.19 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.11 | 3.11 | +0.00 |
| Union Santa Fe | 3.44 | 3.44 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Newells Old Boys and Union Santa Fe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Newells Old Boys / Union Santa Fe)
- 0.87 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Newells Old Boys / Union Santa Fe)
- 0.72 / 1.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Newells Old Boys goals. Columns: Union Santa Fe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newells Old Boys | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Union Santa Fe | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Newells Old Boys or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Union Santa Fe) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Newells Old Boys win by 2+ | 30% | 3.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Newells Old Boys and Union Santa Fe recent form
Newells Old Boys
2W 3D 1L
Union Santa Fe
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Newells Old Boys at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-7-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Union Santa Fe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-9
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.76
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Newells Old Boys at home only, Union Santa Fe away only.
Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Newells Old Boys 1 · draws 1 · Union Santa Fe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Union Santa Fe | 2-3 | Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-11-01 | Newells Old Boys | 0-1 | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-04-19 | Union Santa Fe | 1-1 | Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba — match page 2026-10-31
- Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Estudiantes L.P. v Instituto Cordoba — match page 2026-11-01
- Boca Juniors vs River Plate — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Belgrano Cordoba vs Barracas Central 2026-11-01
- Lanus vs Gimnasia M. 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Newells Old Boys, previous: San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys analysis
- Union Santa Fe, previous: Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. prediction