Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 16

Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys

· Estadio Presidente Peron, Avellaneda· Referee Leandro Rey Hilfer

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Instituto Cordoba to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Instituto CordobaDrawNewells Old Boys

Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceInstituto CordobaDrawNewells Old Boys
Model49%30%21%
Market49%30%21%
Published49%30%21%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.80.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Instituto Cordoba, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.91Now 1.90 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Instituto Cordoba1.911.90-0.01
Draw3.203.08-0.12
Newells Old Boys4.464.50+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Instituto Cordoba and Newells Old Boys expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37Instituto Cordoba
0.80Newells Old Boys
Total expected goals
2.17
Attack rating (Instituto Cordoba / Newells Old Boys)
1.60 / 0.87
Defence rating (Instituto Cordoba / Newells Old Boys)
1.01 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.7% 7.9% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 1 14.4% 13.8% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 2 10.7% 8.6% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 3 4.9% 3.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 2.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Instituto Cordoba goals. Columns: Newells Old Boys goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 37%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Instituto Cordoba49%2.04
Draw30%3.30
Newells Old Boys21%4.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537%2.71
Under 2.563%1.58
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.36
No58%1.73
Double chance1X (Instituto Cordoba or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Newells Old Boys)51%1.96
Handicap -1Instituto Cordoba win by 2+24%4.11
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Instituto Cordoba and Newells Old Boys recent form

Instituto Cordoba 4W 2D 0L
Newells Old Boys 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Instituto Cordoba at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-2-3
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.53
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Newells Old Boys away

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-7
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.47
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Instituto Cordoba at home only, Newells Old Boys away only.

Expected lineups

Instituto Cordoba lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 29 M. Ledesma
  2. 32 A. Bravo
  3. 23 J. Meli
  4. 22 A. Massaccesi
  5. 3 D. Sosa
  6. 15 M. Gallardo
  7. 55 G. Abregú
  8. 44 G. Cerato
  9. 8 J. Acevedo
  10. 20 J. Córdoba
  11. 9 F. Suárez

Bench: H. De La Fuente, F. Alarcón, N. Guerra, A. Luna, M. Fonseca, I. Méndez, W. Viera, M. Tissera, L. Sanseviero, J. Galván, E. Sittaro

Newells Old Boys lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 J. Reinatti
  2. 28 J. Russo
  3. 22 O. Salomón
  4. 23 N. Goitea
  5. 6 M. Ortega
  6. 5 L. Regiardo
  7. 27 L. Gómez
  8. 33 W. Núñez
  9. 15 A. Soñora
  10. 32 S. Solari
  11. 99 I. Ramírez

Bench: M. Luciano, A. Montero, W. Mazzantti, D. Sotelo, J. Mattar, Facundo Gauch, G. Arias, Francisco Scarpeccio

Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Instituto Cordoba 2 · draws 1 · Newells Old Boys 0.

Instituto CordobaDrawsNewells Old Boys
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-26Newells Old Boys1-1Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-06-14Newells Old Boys0-2Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
2023-02-27Instituto Cordoba3-1Newells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 16 fixtures

Before and after this match