Aldosivi vs River Plate preview
In the match between Aldosivi and River Plate, the 1X2 probabilities indicate a strong likelihood for River Plate at 63%, compared to Aldosivi's 14%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 11%. River Plate has dominated the recent head-to-head encounters, winning 7 out of the last 9 matches against Aldosivi.
However, there are factors that could influence the outcome. Aldosivi has shown some resilience with a recent win, and both teams to score has a probability of 51%. Additionally, the expected goals suggest Aldosivi could find the net, with their expected goals at 0.98, while River Plate stands at 1.62. This could lead to a more competitive match than the odds suggest.
Aldosivi vs River Plate: model vs market
| Source | Aldosivi | Draw | River Plate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Market | 12% | 21% | 67% |
| Published | 14% | 23% | 63% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aldosivi vs River Plate odds movement
Median bookmaker price on River Plate, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aldosivi | 6.89 | 7.80 | +0.91 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.43 | +0.33 |
| River Plate | 1.50 | 1.40 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aldosivi and River Plate expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (Aldosivi / River Plate)
- 1.02 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Aldosivi / River Plate)
- 1.45 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aldosivi vs River Plate score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aldosivi goals. Columns: River Plate goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aldosivi vs River Plate goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aldosivi vs River Plate
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aldosivi | 14% | 6.94 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.41 | |
| River Plate | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aldosivi or draw) | 37% | 2.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or River Plate) | 86% | 1.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | River Plate win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aldosivi and River Plate recent form
Aldosivi
2W 0D 4L
River Plate
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aldosivi at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-8-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 3 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 31 matches.
River Plate away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 0.73
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 19 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aldosivi at home only, River Plate away only.
Aldosivi vs River Plate head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Aldosivi 1 · draws 1 · River Plate 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | River Plate | 1-3 | Aldosivi | Copa Argentina |
| 2026-04-26 | River Plate | 3-1 | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2022-07-24 | Aldosivi | 0-3 | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-08-27 | River Plate | 2-0 | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-05-09 | River Plate | 4-1 | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2019-11-02 | Aldosivi | 1-2 | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2018-10-27 | River Plate | 1-0 | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2017-06-22 | River Plate | 1-0 | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2015-10-18 | River Plate | 1-1 | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Gimnasia L.P. v Belgrano Cordoba — match page 2026-11-05
- Barracas Central vs Racing Club 2026-11-06
- Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield 2026-11-06
- Independiente v Deportivo Riestra — match page 2026-11-06
- San Lorenzo v Platense — match page 2026-11-06
- Banfield v Atletico Tucuman — match page 2026-11-07
- Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin 2026-11-07
- Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Aldosivi, previous: Racing Club vs Aldosivi prediction
- River Plate, previous: Boca Juniors vs River Plate: odds and pick